2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings

Monday, December 19, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

CHA 1–1@SAC 2–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
CHA Charlotte Hornets	106	125	+19
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	121	119	−2

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 83% win probability, projected margin 15.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	CHA	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1375	1523
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+218
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−7.1	+2.3
Games played this season	30	28
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.9	112.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	122.8	110.0
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	26.0	0.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingCHA1375SAC1523

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

CHA1375

Ended last season at 1544 → started this one at 1533
First 20 games: −88.0
Last 10 games: −69.8

L@BOS105–140−6.0
WWAS117–116+3.4
LMIL96–105−7.7
LLAC117–119−5.5
L@BKN116–122−3.8
LNYK102–121−15.2
L@PHI113–131−6.0
LDET134–141−11.6
LATL106–125−15.0
L@DEN115–119−2.4

SAC1523

Ended last season at 1383 → started this one at 1412
First 18 games: +69.5
Last 10 games: +41.6

LPHX117–122−5.7
WIND137–114+12.9
W@LAC123–96+26.1
WCHI110–101+6.3
L@MIL113–126−7.0
W@CLE106–95+16.5
L@NYK99–112−9.7
L@PHI103–123−10.6
W@TOR124–123+5.0
W@DET122–113+7.8

Season scoring marginCHA−7.1SAC+2.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

CHA−7.1

Scores 110.3, allows 117.4 over 30 games: −7.1 a game.

SAC+2.3

Scores 117.8, allows 115.5 over 28 games: +2.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10CHA110.9SAC112.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.3).

CHA110.9scored, −1.4 vs league

Factor	CHA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	49.8%	54.0%	−6.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.9%	12.6%	+3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.5%	23.8%	+1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.199	0.210	−0.3
Everything else			−0.2

SAC112.5scored, +0.2 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.7%	54.0%	+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	12.6%	−0.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.1%	23.8%	−1.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.227	0.210	+0.5
Everything else			−0.6

Defensive rating, last 10CHA122.8SAC110.0

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 112.3).

CHA122.8allowed, +10.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.1%	54.0%	−7.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.6%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.1%	23.8%	−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.233	0.210	−0.7
Everything else			−0.9

SAC110.0allowed, −2.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.4%	54.0%	+4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	12.6%	−0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.7%	23.8%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.224	0.210	−0.4
Everything else			−0.3

Pace, last 10average 101.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

CHA 100.0 and SAC 102.5 → average 101.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingCHA26.0SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

CHA26.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Terry Rozier	21.3	34.3	9
Bryce McGowens	4.6	19.5	8

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-19 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-12-19 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestCHA1 daysSAC3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

CHA1day, back-to-back

Last played Dec 18 against DEN.

SAC3days

Last played Dec 16 against DET.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

CHA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 18	@DEN	115–119	41-96	12-38	21-23	11	12	108.5	111.2	106.5
Dec 16	ATL	106–125	39-98	15-43	13-19	12	15	107.1	127.6	98.5
Dec 14	DET	134–141	47-114	17-51	23-29	5	17	119.6	125.9	101.4
Dec 11	@PHI	113–131	38-93	11-30	26-30	15	15	110.8	129.7	101.5
Dec 9	NYK	102–121	37-84	6-26	22-28	12	12	103.0	124.7	98.0
Dec 7	@BKN	116–122	47-88	10-24	12-23	11	10	119.6	125.8	97.0
Dec 5	LAC	117–119	47-98	12-34	11-17	10	14	119.4	120.2	98.5
Dec 3	MIL	96–105	34-87	5-24	23-26	14	9	91.4	100.0	105.0
Dec 2	WAS	117–116	40-95	12-29	25-31	4	19	124.5	123.4	94.0
Nov 28	@BOS	105–140	42-86	11-29	10-15	20	13	105.0	140.0	100.0

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 16	@DET	122–113	43-82	12-31	24-29	13	4	120.8	113.0	100.5
Dec 14	@TOR	124–123	45-93	17-46	17-20	15	13	120.4	121.8	102.0
Dec 13	@PHI	103–123	38-92	10-42	17-20	17	13	98.1	118.3	104.5
Dec 11	@NYK	99–112	33-83	10-39	23-35	16	11	97.1	107.7	103.0
Dec 9	@CLE	106–95	35-66	16-33	20-32	17	5	110.4	97.9	96.5
Dec 7	@MIL	113–126	43-91	12-38	15-16	8	8	117.7	131.3	96.0
Dec 4	CHI	110–101	40-86	13-43	17-19	18	5	106.8	98.1	103.0
Dec 3	@LAC	123–96	46-89	11-32	20-30	9	8	121.8	95.0	101.0
Nov 30	IND	137–114	48-95	16-43	25-29	18	11	120.2	100.0	114.0
Nov 28	PHX	117–122	46-88	9-25	16-18	15	8	111.4	117.3	104.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

17%

pregame chance the forecast gave CHA, the winner

the forecast favored SAC

21 pts

margin miss

forecast +15, actual −6 for SAC

5th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

136th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.77 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	CHA	SAC
Final score	125	119
Field goals	49–95 · 51.6%	45–95 · 47.4%
Three-pointers	10–31 · 32.3%	12–33 · 36.4%
Free throws	17–23 · 73.9%	17–31 · 54.8%
Rebounds	56	42
Assists	26	23
Turnovers	14	8
Steals	4	8
Blocks	7	2

How the model does with these teams over time: Charlotte Hornets · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	+15	−6	−21
Total points	227	244	+17
CHA points	106	125	+19
SAC points	121	119	−2

Recent form before this game