2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors

Monday, November 14, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

SAS 0–1@GSW 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
SAS San Antonio Spurs	109	95	−14
GSW Golden State Warriors (home)	113	132	+19

Forecast: Golden State Warriors to win, 60% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	SAS	GSW
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1464	1571
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+177
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−3.4	−0.1
Games played this season	13	13
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.1	111.5
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.4	116.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	31.4	15.0
Rest days	3	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingSAS1464GSW1571

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

SAS1464

Ended last season at 1486 → started this one at 1489
First 3 games: −0.9
Last 10 games: −24.9

W@MIN115–106+14.3
L@MIN122–134−8.1
WCHI129–124+4.7
WMIN107–98+8.5
LTOR100–143−31.1
LLAC106–113−10.6
L@DEN101–126−12.0
LDEN109–115−7.8
LMEM122–124−3.6
WMIL111–93+20.8

GSW1571

Ended last season at 1699 → started this one at 1649
First 3 games: −8.3
Last 10 games: −70.1

L@PHX105–134−20.1
WMIA123–110+7.9
L@CHA113–120−9.4
L@DET114–128−22.7
L@MIA109–116−7.3
L@ORL129–130−6.4
L@NOP105–114−8.2
WSAC116–113+2.0
WCLE106–101+5.0
L@SAC115–122−10.9

Season scoring marginSAS−3.4GSW−0.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

SAS−3.4

Scores 113.5, allows 118.8 over 13 games: −5.3 a game.

65% this season (−5.3) + 35% last season (+0.1) = −3.4

GSW−0.1

Scores 116.2, allows 119.2 over 13 games: −3.0 a game.

65% this season (−3.0) + 35% last season (+5.4) = −0.1

Offensive rating, last 10SAS109.1GSW111.5

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.6).

SAS109.1scored, −2.5 vs league

Factor	SAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.8%	53.6%	+1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	15.0%	12.6%	−3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.0%	23.8%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.157	0.208	−1.5
Everything else			+0.5

GSW111.5scored, −0.0 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.7%	53.6%	+3.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.2%	12.6%	−2.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.3%	23.8%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.171	0.208	−1.1
Everything else			+0.6

Defensive rating, last 10SAS114.4GSW116.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.6).

SAS114.4allowed, +2.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.8%	53.6%	−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.1%	12.6%	+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.1%	23.8%	−0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.153	0.208	+1.6
Everything else			−0.1

GSW116.5allowed, +5.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.2%	53.6%	−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.6%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.3%	23.8%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.266	0.208	−1.7
Everything else			−0.4

Pace, last 10average 101.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

SAS 101.8 and GSW 100.8 → average 101.3 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingSAS31.4GSW15.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

SAS31.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Tre Jones	11.1	30.6	10
Zach Collins	10.0	20.0	6
Malaki Branham	6.0	19.6	4
Romeo Langford	4.3	17.5	6

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-14 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

GSW15.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Klay Thompson	15.0	30.5	8

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-14 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

RestSAS3 daysGSW1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

SAS3days

Last played Nov 11 against MIL.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 13 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

SAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 11	MIL	111–93	43-85	12-31	13-15	19	9	113.3	95.9	97.5
Nov 9	MEM	122–124	47-98	12-37	16-23	12	13	115.1	119.2	95.1
Nov 7	DEN	109–115	43-82	12-33	11-18	24	10	105.8	111.7	103.0
Nov 5	@DEN	101–126	39-80	12-30	11-19	15	6	103.1	128.6	98.0
Nov 4	LAC	106–113	42-88	12-31	10-18	13	6	106.0	111.9	100.5
Nov 2	TOR	100–143	37-94	14-43	12-14	23	13	90.9	128.8	110.5
Oct 30	MIN	107–98	36-86	16-40	19-25	19	14	108.1	99.0	99.0
Oct 28	CHI	129–124	46-86	16-38	21-26	20	8	121.7	117.0	106.0
Oct 26	@MIN	122–134	43-95	16-36	20-22	16	14	116.2	127.6	105.0
Oct 24	@MIN	115–106	48-105	12-37	7-13	13	14	110.6	103.9	103.0

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 13	@SAC	115–122	42-90	16-47	15-16	18	8	110.6	117.3	104.0
Nov 11	CLE	106–101	40-82	15-36	11-14	14	8	108.2	104.1	97.5
Nov 7	SAC	116–113	44-88	14-38	14-21	15	8	112.6	107.6	104.0
Nov 4	@NOP	105–114	35-71	12-32	23-25	22	3	106.1	115.2	99.0
Nov 3	@ORL	129–130	50-97	19-43	10-15	14	9	122.9	126.2	104.0
Nov 1	@MIA	109–116	39-84	18-49	13-17	20	10	112.4	118.4	97.5
Oct 30	@DET	114–128	39-92	12-39	24-25	14	13	109.6	125.5	103.0
Oct 29	@CHA	113–120	44-100	13-44	12-16	10	10	106.6	113.2	96.0
Oct 27	MIA	123–110	46-92	18-46	13-15	19	16	124.2	108.9	100.0
Oct 25	@PHX	105–134	41-91	10-35	13-17	13	10	101.9	128.8	103.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

60%

pregame chance the forecast gave GSW, the winner

GSW was the forecast favorite

33 pts

margin miss

forecast +4, actual +37 for GSW

759th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

19th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	SAS	GSW
Final score	95	132
Field goals	36–100 · 36.0%	47–88 · 53.4%
Three-pointers	10–40 · 25.0%	23–45 · 51.1%
Free throws	13–19 · 68.4%	15–16 · 93.8%
Rebounds	53	40
Assists	18	35
Turnovers	18	12
Steals	6	9
Blocks	6	3

How the model does with these teams over time: San Antonio Spurs · Golden State Warriors

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (GSW)	+4	+37	+33
Total points	222	227	+5
SAS points	109	95	−14
GSW points	113	132	+19

Recent form before this game