2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans

Monday, November 21, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 1–1@NOP 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	113	83	−30
NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home)	117	128	+11

Forecast: New Orleans Pelicans to win, 60% win probability, projected margin 4.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	NOP
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1584	1548
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+34
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+1.0	+2.9
Games played this season	17	16
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	114.8	112.6
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	112.0	110.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	60.8	0.0
Rest days	1	3
Second night of a back-to-back	Yes	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1584NOP1548

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1584

Ended last season at 1699 → started this one at 1649
First 7 games: −52.6
Last 10 games: −12.4

L@MIA109–116−7.3
L@ORL129–130−6.4
L@NOP105–114−8.2
WSAC116–113+2.0
WCLE106–101+5.0
L@SAC115–122−10.9
WSAS132–95+11.8
L@PHX119–130−8.3
WNYK111–101+5.8
W@HOU127–120+4.1

NOP1548

Ended last season at 1524 → started this one at 1518
First 6 games: +47.3
Last 10 games: −17.0

L@LAL117–120−7.3
WGSW114–105+8.2
L@ATL121–124−5.1
L@IND122–129−11.0
W@CHI115–111+6.5
LPOR95–106−21.1
WHOU119–106+3.6
WMEM113–102+10.1
WCHI124–110+6.6
LBOS109–117−7.5

Season scoring marginGSW+1.0NOP+2.9

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+1.0

Scores 117.6, allows 117.4 over 17 games: +0.2 a game.

85% this season (+0.2) + 15% last season (+5.4) = +1.0

NOP+2.9

Scores 116.2, allows 112.4 over 16 games: +3.9 a game.

80% this season (+3.9) + 20% last season (−1.0) = +2.9

Offensive rating, last 10GSW114.8NOP112.6

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.7).

GSW114.8scored, +3.1 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.2%	53.7%	+8.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.9%	12.7%	−3.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	18.6%	23.8%	−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.165	0.210	−1.3
Everything else			+1.6

NOP112.6scored, +1.0 vs league

Factor	NOP	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.9%	53.7%	+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.7%	12.7%	+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	24.5%	23.8%	+0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.205	0.210	−0.1
Everything else			−1.0

Defensive rating, last 10GSW112.0NOP110.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2022-23 to date: 111.7).

GSW112.0allowed, +0.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.6%	53.7%	+1.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.6%	12.7%	−0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.5%	23.8%	−0.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.251	0.210	−1.2
Everything else			+0.1

NOP110.1allowed, −1.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.7%	53.7%	−1.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.1%	12.7%	+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.8%	23.8%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.206	0.210	+0.1
Everything else			+0.1

Pace, last 10average 101.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 101.8 and NOP 100.3 → average 101.1 (league 2022-23 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingGSW60.8NOP0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW60.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Stephen Curry	33.2	35.1	9
Klay Thompson	21.0	32.6	8
Draymond Green	6.6	31.5	9

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-21 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

NOP0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-11-21 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

RestGSW1 daysNOP3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW1day, back-to-back

Last played Nov 20 against HOU.

NOP3days

Last played Nov 18 against BOS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 20	@HOU	127–120	46-86	24-47	11-15	17	8	124.5	117.6	102.0
Nov 18	NYK	111–101	41-91	18-50	11-20	16	12	108.8	98.1	102.5
Nov 16	@PHX	119–130	42-92	18-42	17-17	17	6	111.2	121.5	107.0
Nov 14	SAS	132–95	47-88	23-45	15-16	12	5	130.7	94.1	101.0
Nov 13	@SAC	115–122	42-90	16-47	15-16	18	8	110.6	117.3	104.0
Nov 11	CLE	106–101	40-82	15-36	11-14	14	8	108.2	104.1	97.5
Nov 7	SAC	116–113	44-88	14-38	14-21	15	8	112.6	107.6	104.0
Nov 4	@NOP	105–114	35-71	12-32	23-25	22	3	106.1	115.2	99.0
Nov 3	@ORL	129–130	50-97	19-43	10-15	14	9	122.9	126.2	104.0
Nov 1	@MIA	109–116	39-84	18-49	13-17	20	10	112.4	118.4	97.5

NOP

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Nov 18	BOS	109–117	43-87	13-35	10-13	11	7	110.1	117.0	99.5
Nov 16	CHI	124–110	43-85	17-33	21-24	13	12	126.5	111.1	98.5
Nov 15	MEM	113–102	43-91	18-38	9-12	10	7	115.3	103.0	98.5
Nov 12	HOU	119–106	42-86	8-29	27-31	12	12	117.8	105.0	101.0
Nov 10	POR	95–106	33-79	10-28	19-24	17	9	100.0	111.6	95.0
Nov 9	@CHI	115–111	42-84	3-19	28-36	16	13	111.7	108.8	102.5
Nov 7	@IND	122–129	48-97	14-34	12-17	10	13	120.8	126.5	101.5
Nov 5	@ATL	121–124	47-108	7-23	20-28	16	19	107.1	108.8	102.8
Nov 4	GSW	114–105	41-81	12-29	20-29	15	9	115.2	106.1	99.0
Nov 2	@LAL	117–120	47-102	8-25	15-21	13	11	101.7	103.4	104.6

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

60%

pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner

NOP was the forecast favorite

41 pts

margin miss

forecast +4, actual +45 for NOP

759th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

7th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 0.50 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	NOP
Final score	83	128
Field goals	28–74 · 37.8%	49–91 · 53.8%
Three-pointers	10–43 · 23.3%	15–42 · 35.7%
Free throws	17–19 · 89.5%	15–21 · 71.4%
Rebounds	34	50
Assists	17	30
Turnovers	26	14
Steals	9	15
Blocks	5	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · New Orleans Pelicans

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (NOP)	+4	+45	+41
Total points	230	211	−19
GSW points	113	83	−30
NOP points	117	128	+11

Recent form before this game