2022-23 · Regular Season · Final

Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings

Wednesday, October 19, 2022 · tip-off time not recorded

POR 0–0@SAC 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
POR Portland Trail Blazers	102	115	+13
SAC Sacramento Kings (home)	116	108	−8

Forecast: Sacramento Kings to win, 81% win probability, projected margin 14.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	POR	SAC
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1312	1412
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+170
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−8.9	−5.5
Games played this season	0	0
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	100.6	109.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	121.1	114.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	0.0
Rest days	5	5
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPOR1312SAC1412

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

POR1312

Ended last season at 1249 → started this one at 1312
No games played yet this season.

SAC1412

Ended last season at 1383 → started this one at 1412
No games played yet this season.

Season scoring marginPOR−8.9SAC−5.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

POR−8.9

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−8.9) = −8.9

SAC−5.5

No games played yet this season.

0% this season (±0.0) + 100% last season (−5.5) = −5.5

Offensive rating, last 10POR100.6SAC109.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

POR100.6scored, −10.7 vs league

Factor	POR	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.2%	53.3%	−4.7
Turnovers (TOV%)	14.9%	11.8%	−4.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.1%	23.0%	+0.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.139	0.196	−1.6
Everything else			−0.1

SAC109.2scored, −2.2 vs league

Factor	SAC	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	53.3%	+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	11.8%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	16.1%	23.0%	−3.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.242	0.196	+1.3
Everything else			+0.3

Defensive rating, last 10POR121.1SAC114.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2021-22: 111.4).

POR121.1allowed, +9.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	58.9%	53.3%	−8.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.7%	11.8%	+2.6
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.3%	23.0%	−2.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.259	0.196	−1.8
Everything else			+0.7

SAC114.5allowed, +3.2 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.6%	53.3%	−3.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	11.8%	+0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.2%	23.0%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.151	0.196	+1.3
Everything else			−0.2

Pace, last 10average 98.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

POR 97.5 and SAC 99.2 → average 98.4 (league 2021-22: 98.6)

Rotation points missingPOR0.0SAC0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

POR0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-19 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

SAC0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2022-10-19 17:30 ET. 0 rotation players.

RestPOR5 daysSAC5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

POR5days

Last played Apr 10 against UTA (192 days, capped at 5).

SAC5days

Last played Apr 10 against PHX (192 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

POR

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 10	UTA	80–111	31-83	9-34	9-12	14	5	81.6	112.1	98.5
Apr 8	@DAL	78–128	31-83	7-32	9-12	16	5	81.3	128.0	98.0
Apr 7	@NOP	94–127	36-69	11-31	11-13	22	3	101.1	135.1	93.5
Apr 5	@OKC	94–98	35-83	11-32	13-16	17	10	96.9	101.0	97.0
Apr 3	@SAS	92–113	33-84	16-45	10-15	14	7	96.8	115.3	96.5
Apr 1	@SAS	111–130	41-92	15-35	14-20	10	12	112.1	131.3	99.0
Mar 30	NOP	107–117	39-85	14-42	15-18	20	13	108.1	118.2	99.0
Mar 28	OKC	131–134	51-112	20-50	9-13	11	19	120.2	126.4	97.4
Mar 26	HOU	98–115	37-93	12-40	12-17	21	21	99.0	116.2	99.0
Mar 25	HOU	106–125	43-85	3-20	17-23	17	13	109.3	127.6	97.5

SAC

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Apr 10	@PHX	116–109	40-76	14-26	22-30	14	2	117.2	110.1	99.0
Apr 9	@LAC	98–117	38-86	7-28	15-24	13	7	98.0	118.2	99.5
Apr 5	NOP	109–123	39-76	11-30	20-22	15	3	111.2	124.2	98.5
Apr 3	GSW	90–109	31-81	7-33	21-24	12	6	94.7	113.5	95.5
Apr 1	@HOU	122–117	42-81	12-28	26-34	13	8	120.8	114.7	101.5
Mar 30	@HOU	121–118	44-95	7-26	26-36	9	13	116.3	112.4	104.5
Mar 28	@MIA	100–123	37-81	12-35	14-18	14	5	104.2	128.1	96.0
Mar 26	@ORL	114–110	42-98	11-36	19-24	14	18	107.5	102.8	96.5
Mar 23	@IND	110–109	43-82	12-37	12-17	16	4	111.1	109.0	99.5
Mar 20	PHX	124–127	39-91	16-34	30-36	15	9	110.7	112.4	101.9

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2022-23 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave POR, the winner

the forecast favored SAC

21 pts

margin miss

forecast +14, actual −7 for SAC

8th

most surprising result of 2022-23

of 1,314 graded games

136th

largest margin miss of 2022-23

outcome surprise 1.68 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	POR	SAC
Final score	115	108
Field goals	39–88 · 44.3%	39–85 · 45.9%
Three-pointers	11–28 · 39.3%	17–44 · 38.6%
Free throws	26–33 · 78.8%	13–19 · 68.4%
Rebounds	44	41
Assists	20	27
Turnovers	11	15
Steals	11	8
Blocks	2	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Portland Trail Blazers · Sacramento Kings

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (SAC)	+14	−7	−21
Total points	218	223	+5
POR points	102	115	+13
SAC points	116	108	−8

Recent form before this game