2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

Monday, March 30, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET

PHI 5–3@MIA 5–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers	122	109	−13
MIA Miami Heat (home)	121	119	−2

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 53% win probability, projected margin 1.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	PHI	MIA
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1509	1519
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+79
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.3	+2.3
Games played this season	74	75
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	116.3	116.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	115.7	121.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	103.8
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	0.0	18.7
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1509MIA1519

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1509

Ended last season at 1288 → started this one at 1341
First 64 games: +139.2
Last 10 games: +29.0

WMEM139–129+5.3
L@DET109–131−6.2
WBKN104–97+2.9
WPOR109–103+5.6
L@DEN96–124−10.1
W@SAC139–118+12.9
W@UTA126–116+7.0
LOKC103–123−8.4
WCHI157–137+7.8
W@CHA118–114+12.2

MIA1519

Ended last season at 1462 → started this one at 1472
First 65 games: +101.7
Last 10 games: −54.7

WWAS150–129+2.6
WMIL112–105+2.6
LORL117–121−8.5
L@CHA106–136−13.5
LLAL126–134−10.4
L@HOU122–123−2.9
LSAS111–136−12.7
W@CLE120–103+24.5
L@CLE128–149−10.4
L@IND118–135−26.0

Season scoring marginPHI−0.3MIA+2.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI−0.3

Scores 116.2, allows 116.5 over 74 games: −0.3 a game.

MIA+2.3

Scores 120.3, allows 117.9 over 75 games: +2.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHI116.3MIA116.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

PHI116.3scored, +1.6 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.0%	54.6%	−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.6%	12.2%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.4%	26.0%	+0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.223	0.210	+0.4
Everything else			−0.8

MIA116.0scored, +1.3 vs league

Factor	MIA	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.8%	54.6%	−1.2
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.2%	+3.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.0%	26.0%	−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.256	0.210	+1.3
Everything else			−0.6

Defensive rating, last 10PHI115.7MIA121.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).

PHI115.7allowed, +1.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.9%	54.6%	+1.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	12.2%	−0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	29.6%	26.0%	−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.216	0.210	−0.2
Everything else			−0.2

MIA121.5allowed, +6.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	59.2%	54.6%	−7.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.2%	+0.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.4%	26.0%	+2.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.236	0.210	−0.8
Everything else			−1.4

Pace, last 10average 103.8

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 103.0 and MIA 104.5 → average 103.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)

Rotation points missingPHI0.0MIA18.7

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-30 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

MIA18.7pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Norman Powell	18.7	30.6	6

Source: official injury report, 2026-03-30 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPHI2 daysMIA1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI2days

Last played Mar 28 against CHA.

MIA1day, back-to-back

Last played Mar 29 against IND.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 28	@CHA	118–114	40-82	16-34	22-29	9	7	122.9	117.5	96.5
Mar 25	CHI	157–137	57-103	22-47	21-28	8	9	138.9	121.2	113.0
Mar 23	OKC	103–123	41-94	17-46	4-9	16	9	103.0	121.8	100.5
Mar 21	@UTA	126–116	46-92	6-27	28-32	16	15	123.5	112.6	102.5
Mar 19	@SAC	139–118	51-102	17-36	20-24	9	17	132.4	113.5	104.5
Mar 17	@DEN	96–124	37-94	9-41	13-15	13	8	92.3	118.1	104.5
Mar 15	POR	109–103	44-97	7-25	14-15	12	14	103.8	100.0	104.0
Mar 14	BKN	104–97	38-82	3-25	25-31	14	8	103.0	97.0	100.5
Mar 12	@DET	109–131	42-90	8-35	17-24	15	10	106.9	127.2	102.5
Mar 10	MEM	139–129	45-86	11-31	38-46	10	12	136.3	127.7	101.5

MIA

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 29	@IND	118–135	46-99	13-37	13-18	7	10	114.6	129.8	103.5
Mar 27	@CLE	128–149	40-91	15-46	33-38	13	11	118.5	136.7	108.5
Mar 25	@CLE	120–103	42-81	18-45	18-22	12	5	123.7	106.2	97.0
Mar 23	SAS	111–136	38-95	16-52	19-20	12	7	103.7	127.1	107.0
Mar 21	@HOU	122–123	47-92	16-41	12-16	9	11	128.4	130.9	94.5
Mar 19	LAL	126–134	48-94	12-38	18-22	11	12	122.3	128.8	103.5
Mar 17	@CHA	106–136	36-89	7-36	27-34	15	12	101.0	128.3	105.5
Mar 14	ORL	117–121	41-88	12-38	23-28	10	7	111.4	115.2	105.0
Mar 12	MIL	112–105	38-92	14-41	22-27	11	15	109.8	104.0	101.5
Mar 10	WAS	150–129	45-90	13-43	47-59	16	15	126.1	108.4	119.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

47%

pregame chance the forecast gave MIA, the winner

the forecast favored PHI

11 pts

margin miss

forecast −1, actual +10 for MIA

379th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

539th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 0.75 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	PHI	MIA
Final score	109	119
Field goals	40–96 · 41.7%	43–93 · 46.2%
Three-pointers	12–38 · 31.6%	11–40 · 27.5%
Free throws	17–19 · 89.5%	22–29 · 75.9%
Rebounds	42	57
Assists	26	24
Turnovers	9	11
Steals	3	6
Blocks	5	4

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Miami Heat

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (MIA)	−1	+10	+11
Total points	243	228	−15
PHI points	122	109	−13
MIA points	121	119	−2

Recent form before this game