2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
Sunday, March 29, 2026 · tip-off 5:00 PM ET
MIA 5–3@IND 4–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA Miami Heat | 128 | 118 | −10 |
| IND Indiana Pacers (home) | 117 | 135 | +18 |
Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 78% win probability, projected margin 11.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | MIA | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1545 | 1282 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −193 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +2.6 | −8.7 |
| Games played this season | 74 | 74 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 116.8 | 116.2 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 119.9 | 125.5 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 101.6 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 18.7 | 43.9 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingMIA1545IND1282
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
MIA1545
- Ended last season at 1462 → started this one at 1472
- First 64 games: +90.0
- Last 10 games: −17.0
- WDET121–110+11.7
- WWAS150–129+2.6
- WMIL112–105+2.6
- LORL117–121−8.5
- L@CHA106–136−13.5
- LLAL126–134−10.4
- L@HOU122–123−2.9
- LSAS111–136−12.7
- W@CLE120–103+24.5
- L@CLE128–149−10.4
IND1282
- Ended last season at 1673 → started this one at 1630
- First 64 games: −326.7
- Last 10 games: −21.1
- L@SAC109–114−5.1
- LPHX108–123−6.6
- LNYK92–101−2.5
- L@MIL123–134−5.6
- L@NYK110–136−2.1
- LPOR119–127−5.4
- L@SAS119–134−1.0
- W@ORL128–126+11.6
- LLAL130–137−2.8
- LLAC113–114−1.6
Season scoring marginMIA+2.6IND−8.7
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
MIA+2.6
Scores 120.3, allows 117.7 over 74 games: +2.6 a game.
IND−8.7
Scores 111.9, allows 120.6 over 74 games: −8.7 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10MIA116.8IND116.2
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).
MIA116.8scored, +2.2 vs league
| Factor | MIA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 53.7% | 54.6% | −1.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.4% | 12.2% | +2.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.268 | 0.210 | +1.7 | |
| Everything else | −0.8 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 1 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
IND116.2scored, +1.5 vs league
| Factor | IND | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.9% | 54.6% | +5.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.9% | 12.2% | −1.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 16.9% | 26.1% | −4.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.184 | 0.210 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | +2.4 |
Defensive rating, last 10MIA119.9IND125.5
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.7).
MIA119.9allowed, +5.2 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 57.5% | 54.6% | −4.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.3% | 12.2% | +0.1 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.1% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.245 | 0.210 | −1.0 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 1 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
IND125.5allowed, +10.9 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.8% | 54.6% | −3.4 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.6% | 12.2% | −3.7 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 32.7% | 26.1% | −3.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.201 | 0.210 | +0.3 | |
| Everything else | −1.1 |
Pace, last 10average 101.6
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
MIA 103.9 and IND 99.3 → average 101.6 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.2)
Rotation points missingMIA18.7IND43.9
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
MIA18.7pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 18.7 | 30.6 | 6 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-29 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
IND43.9pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nesmith | 18.4 | 30.7 | 9 |
| Jarace Walker | 13.9 | 29.8 | 10 |
| Ivica Zubac | 11.6 | 23.7 | 5 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-03-29 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.
RestMIA2 daysIND2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
MIA2days
Last played Mar 27 against CLE.
IND2days
Last played Mar 27 against LAC.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
MIA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | @CLE | 128–149 | 40-91 | 15-46 | 33-38 | 13 | 11 | 118.5 | 136.7 | 108.5 |
| Mar 25 | @CLE | 120–103 | 42-81 | 18-45 | 18-22 | 12 | 5 | 123.7 | 106.2 | 97.0 |
| Mar 23 | SAS | 111–136 | 38-95 | 16-52 | 19-20 | 12 | 7 | 103.7 | 127.1 | 107.0 |
| Mar 21 | @HOU | 122–123 | 47-92 | 16-41 | 12-16 | 9 | 11 | 128.4 | 130.9 | 94.5 |
| Mar 19 | LAL | 126–134 | 48-94 | 12-38 | 18-22 | 11 | 12 | 122.3 | 128.8 | 103.5 |
| Mar 17 | @CHA | 106–136 | 36-89 | 7-36 | 27-34 | 15 | 12 | 101.0 | 128.3 | 105.5 |
| Mar 14 | ORL | 117–121 | 41-88 | 12-38 | 23-28 | 10 | 7 | 111.4 | 115.2 | 105.0 |
| Mar 12 | MIL | 112–105 | 38-92 | 14-41 | 22-27 | 11 | 15 | 109.8 | 104.0 | 101.5 |
| Mar 10 | WAS | 150–129 | 45-90 | 13-43 | 47-59 | 16 | 15 | 126.1 | 108.4 | 119.0 |
| Mar 8 | DET | 121–110 | 43-93 | 12-33 | 23-25 | 11 | – | 123.5 | 113.4 | 97.5 |
IND
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | LAC | 113–114 | 43-87 | 16-36 | 11-15 | 20 | 8 | 111.9 | 115.2 | 100.0 |
| Mar 25 | LAL | 130–137 | 48-86 | 16-39 | 18-23 | 18 | 5 | 122.6 | 126.9 | 107.0 |
| Mar 23 | @ORL | 128–126 | 45-82 | 16-35 | 22-24 | 7 | 4 | 132.0 | 128.6 | 97.5 |
| Mar 21 | @SAS | 119–134 | 44-85 | 16-35 | 15-19 | 9 | 4 | 120.2 | 135.4 | 99.0 |
| Mar 18 | POR | 119–127 | 46-91 | 12-27 | 15-17 | 11 | 10 | 121.4 | 128.3 | 98.5 |
| Mar 17 | @NYK | 110–136 | 44-85 | 17-38 | 5-7 | 17 | 8 | 114.6 | 141.7 | 96.0 |
| Mar 15 | @MIL | 123–134 | 42-81 | 21-42 | 18-23 | 18 | 10 | 128.1 | 139.6 | 96.0 |
| Mar 13 | NYK | 92–101 | 35-89 | 10-38 | 12-15 | 10 | 7 | 94.8 | 105.2 | 96.5 |
| Mar 12 | PHX | 108–123 | 37-82 | 12-40 | 22-25 | 16 | 3 | 112.5 | 128.1 | 96.0 |
| Mar 10 | @SAC | 109–114 | 38-93 | 13-43 | 20-22 | 15 | 7 | 103.8 | 106.5 | 106.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIA | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 118 | 135 |
| Field goals | 46–99 · 46.5% | 53–92 · 57.6% |
| Three-pointers | 13–37 · 35.1% | 18–39 · 46.2% |
| Free throws | 13–18 · 72.2% | 11–13 · 84.6% |
| Rebounds | 42 | 42 |
| Assists | 29 | 36 |
| Turnovers | 7 | 11 |
| Steals | 5 | 3 |
| Blocks | 4 | 5 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Indiana Pacers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (IND) | −11 | +17 | +28 |
| Total points | 245 | 253 | +8 |
| MIA points | 128 | 118 | −10 |
| IND points | 117 | 135 | +18 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10 2025-26 | MIA at IND | MIA 99 – 123 IND |
| Dec 27 2025-26 | IND at MIA | IND 116 – 142 MIA |
| Feb 28 2024-25 | IND at MIA | IND 120 – 125 MIA |
| Jan 2 2024-25 | IND at MIA | IND 128 – 115 MIA |
| Nov 17 2024-25 | MIA at IND | MIA 110 – 119 IND |