The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for May 5

2024-25 · Playoffs · Final

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics

Monday, May 5, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

NYK 2–3@BOS 2–5 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NYK 23 percent, BOS 77 percent. NYK Knicks 23% proj. 100 · final 108 BOS Celtics · home 77% proj. 111 · final 105
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NYK New York Knicks 100 108 +8
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 111 105 −6

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 77% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNYKBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 15741697
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +193
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +3.9+9.3
Games played this season 8887
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.9116.0
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 111.8102.9
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 94.0
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 45
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo
Playoff series state 0 home series wins

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNYK1574BOS1697

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NYK1574

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1577 → started this one at 1558
  2. First 78 games: +24.1
  3. Last 10 games: −8.5
  • LBOS117–119−4.0
  • L@DET106–115−8.1
  • LCLE102–108−6.4
  • W@BKN113–105+3.7
  • WDET123–112+7.7
  • LDET94–100−10.9
  • W@DET118–116+5.9
  • W@DET94–93+4.8
  • LDET103–106−7.9
  • W@DET116–113+6.7

BOS1697

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1742 → started this one at 1682
  2. First 77 games: +17.7
  3. Last 10 games: −2.4
  • WWAS124–90+1.6
  • W@NYK119–117+4.0
  • L@ORL76–96−26.1
  • WCHA130–94+1.8
  • WCHA93–86+0.6
  • WORL103–86+5.2
  • WORL109–100+3.3
  • L@ORL93–95−6.8
  • W@ORL107–98+6.7
  • WORL120–89+7.3
Season scoring marginNYK+3.9BOS+9.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NYK+3.9

Scores 115.2, allows 111.3 over 88 games: +3.9 a game.

BOS+9.3

Scores 115.7, allows 106.4 over 87 games: +9.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NYK110.9BOS116.0

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

NYK110.9scored, −2.8 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.5%54.4%−4.3
Turnovers (TOV%)10.4%12.0%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.3%25.2%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1890.192−0.1
Everything else−1.1

BOS116.0scored, +2.3 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.4%+0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.0%+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.2%25.2%+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1900.192−0.1
Everything else+1.3
Defensive rating, last 10NYK111.8BOS102.9

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.7).

NYK111.8allowed, −1.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.1%54.4%+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)14.4%12.0%+3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.4%25.2%−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2520.192−1.7
Everything else+0.4

BOS102.9allowed, −10.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)47.6%54.4%+10.2
Turnovers (TOV%)11.1%12.0%−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%25.2%−0.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1300.192+1.8
Everything else+0.7
Pace, last 10average 94.0

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NYK 96.5 and BOS 91.4 → average 94.0 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.4)

Rotation points missingNYK0.0BOS0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-05-05 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

BOS0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-05-05 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestNYK4 daysBOS5 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NYK4days

Last played May 1 against DET.

BOS5days

Last played Apr 29 against ORL (6 days, capped at 5).

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
May 1@DET116–11341-8610-3024-301613112.6110.8102.5
Apr 29DET103–10639-909-2516-271315106.2108.297.5
Apr 27@DET94–9334-9115-3311-18101298.998.994.5
Apr 24@DET118–11640-8612-3226-2999120.4118.498.0
Apr 21DET94–10034-8110-3516-1914796.9105.396.0
Apr 19DET123–11249-9310-2615-1798123.0114.399.0
Apr 13@BKN113–10537-8616-4223-26117115.3108.297.5
Apr 11CLE102–10836-8816-4114-20810109.7114.993.5
Apr 10@DET106–11542-9011-3411-14148111.6122.394.5
Apr 8BOS117–11948-10111-3810-161117114.7116.792.4

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Apr 29ORL120–8943-7613-2421-24113129.095.793.0
Apr 27@ORL107–9834-789-3130-321011115.1105.493.0
Apr 25@ORL93–9533-749-2718-22198102.2105.690.5
Apr 23ORL109–10036-8012-3725-331013122.5113.688.5
Apr 20ORL103–8637-8216-3713-1899118.498.987.0
Apr 13CHA93–8635-9014-459-131315103.395.690.0
Apr 11CHA130–9449-9523-519-12109130.094.0100.0
Apr 9@ORL76–9632-827-405-615785.4105.590.0
Apr 8@NYK119–11740-8719-4920-25159116.7114.792.4
Apr 6WAS124–9048-9824-524-61321137.8100.090.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
23%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
14 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −3 for BOS
26th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
381st
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.47 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNYKBOS
Final score108105
Field goals37–87 · 42.5%34–97 · 35.1%
Three-pointers17–37 · 45.9%15–60 · 25.0%
Free throws17–31 · 54.8%22–26 · 84.6%
Rebounds4959
Assists1918
Turnovers1213
Steals104
Blocks25

How the model does with these teams over time: New York Knicks · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+11−3−14
Total points211213+2
NYK points100108+8
BOS points111105−6

Recent form before this game

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
May 1 at DET W 116–113
Apr 29 vs DET L 103–106
Apr 27 at DET W 94–93
Apr 24 at DET W 118–116
Apr 21 vs DET L 94–100

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Apr 29 vs ORL W 120–89
Apr 27 at ORL W 107–98
Apr 25 at ORL L 93–95
Apr 23 vs ORL W 109–100
Apr 20 vs ORL W 103–86

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Apr 8 2024-25 BOS at NYK BOS 119 – 117 NYK
Feb 23 2024-25 NYK at BOS NYK 105 – 118 BOS
Feb 8 2024-25 BOS at NYK BOS 131 – 104 NYK
Oct 22 2024-25 NYK at BOS NYK 109 – 132 BOS
Apr 11 2023-24 NYK at BOS NYK 118 – 109 BOS