2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks

Saturday, February 1, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

LAL 1–1@NYK 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	107	128	+21
NYK New York Knicks (home)	115	112	−3

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 71% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	NYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1527	1630
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+173
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−0.5	+7.0
Games played this season	46	48
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	116.2	121.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	110.1	114.6
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	97.4
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	25.4	0.0
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1527NYK1630

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1527

Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
First 36 games: −40.5
Last 10 games: +14.7

LSAS102–126−27.4
WMIA117–108+8.2
WBKN102–101+1.6
L@LAC102–116−7.2
WWAS111–88+3.9
WBOS117–96+23.7
W@GSW118–108+11.9
W@CHA112–107+4.6
L@PHI104–118−13.6
W@WAS134–96+9.0

NYK1630

Ended last season at 1577 → started this one at 1558
First 38 games: +53.1
Last 10 games: +18.8

LOKC101–126−15.2
WMIL140–106+13.4
LDET119–124−13.2
W@PHI125–119+5.6
LMIN99–116−20.6
WATL119–110+5.5
W@BKN99–95+3.1
WSAC143–120+12.2
WMEM143–106+20.6
WDEN122–112+7.4

Season scoring marginLAL−0.5NYK+7.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL−0.5

Scores 111.8, allows 112.3 over 46 games: −0.5 a game.

NYK+7.0

Scores 117.9, allows 110.8 over 48 games: +7.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAL116.2NYK121.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.0).

LAL116.2scored, +3.2 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.8%	54.2%	+3.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.9%	12.3%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.4%	24.9%	−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.186	0.193	−0.2
Everything else			−0.3

NYK121.3scored, +8.4 vs league

Factor	NYK	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	56.2%	54.2%	+3.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	9.9%	12.3%	+3.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.3%	24.9%	+2.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.190	0.193	−0.1
Everything else			−0.5

Defensive rating, last 10LAL110.1NYK114.6

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.0).

LAL110.1allowed, −2.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.6%	54.2%	+2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.3%	−1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.6%	24.9%	+1.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.168	0.193	+0.7
Everything else			−0.2

NYK114.6allowed, +1.7 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.5%	54.2%	−1.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	12.3%	+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	28.8%	24.9%	−1.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.172	0.193	+0.6
Everything else			−0.9

Pace, last 10average 97.4

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 96.5 and NYK 98.3 → average 97.4 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingLAL25.4NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL25.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Anthony Davis	25.4	31.5	8

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-01 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-02-01 17:30 ET. 7 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysNYK3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Jan 30 against WAS.

NYK3days

Last played Jan 29 against DEN.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 30	@WAS	134–96	49-90	15-32	21-22	11	8	132.7	93.2	102.0
Jan 28	@PHI	104–118	37-72	10-33	20-23	22	4	104.0	118.0	100.0
Jan 27	@CHA	112–107	44-86	6-28	18-24	16	11	117.9	111.5	95.5
Jan 25	@GSW	118–108	47-86	10-29	14-17	12	10	121.6	112.5	96.5
Jan 23	BOS	117–96	42-89	15-35	18-20	6	10	124.5	102.1	94.0
Jan 21	WAS	111–88	43-90	11-34	14-18	10	7	112.1	87.1	100.0
Jan 19	@LAC	102–116	38-76	9-27	17-19	15	5	107.4	120.8	95.5
Jan 17	BKN	102–101	38-82	12-34	14-18	10	6	112.1	111.0	91.0
Jan 15	MIA	117–108	47-90	13-34	10-14	6	6	123.2	113.7	95.0
Jan 13	SAS	102–126	39-87	14-44	10-16	19	13	106.3	131.3	96.0

NYK

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 29	DEN	122–112	48-93	14-34	12-18	5	6	123.2	113.1	99.0
Jan 27	MEM	143–106	56-108	17-44	14-18	10	16	133.6	101.0	106.0
Jan 25	SAC	143–120	52-105	17-36	22-23	11	17	137.5	116.5	103.5
Jan 21	@BKN	99–95	40-87	8-28	11-14	10	9	104.2	100.0	95.0
Jan 20	ATL	119–110	47-90	9-26	16-21	15	12	120.2	112.2	98.5
Jan 17	MIN	99–116	35-90	14-34	15-17	9	15	108.8	126.1	91.5
Jan 15	@PHI	125–119	46-86	16-37	17-24	13	15	127.6	122.7	88.3
Jan 13	DET	119–124	40-80	15-37	24-29	17	10	119.0	124.0	100.0
Jan 12	MIL	140–106	51-88	18-41	20-24	11	10	140.0	107.1	99.5
Jan 10	OKC	101–126	37-96	4-31	23-23	10	15	99.0	123.5	102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

29%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner

the forecast favored NYK

24 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual −16 for NYK

57th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

115th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.24 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	NYK
Final score	128	112
Field goals	47–81 · 58.0%	44–95 · 46.3%
Three-pointers	19–40 · 47.5%	10–28 · 35.7%
Free throws	15–18 · 83.3%	14–19 · 73.7%
Rebounds	37	44
Assists	26	33
Turnovers	15	14
Steals	9	7
Blocks	4	3

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)	+8	−16	−24
Total points	222	240	+18
LAL points	107	128	+21
NYK points	115	112	−3

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
LAL	32	27	32	37	–	128
NYK	32	22	35	23	–	112

Recent form before this game