The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 27

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at New York Knicks

Monday, January 27, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 4–0@NYK 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: MEM 41 percent, NYK 59 percent. MEM Grizzlies 41% proj. 114 · final 106 NYK Knicks · home 59% proj. 117 · final 143
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies 114 106 −8
NYK New York Knicks (home) 117 143 +26

Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 59% win probability, projected margin 3.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputMEMNYK
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 16171602
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +55
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. +8.7+6.3
Games played this season 4646
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 122.6117.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 112.6114.8
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.3
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 0.00.0
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1617NYK1602

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1617

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1319 → started this one at 1364
  2. First 36 games: +202.7
  3. Last 10 games: +49.6
  • WDAL119–104+11.0
  • LHOU115–119−7.6
  • W@MIN127–125+6.2
  • L@HOU118–120−3.3
  • W@SAS129–115+12.2
  • W@SAS140–112+18.0
  • WMIN108–106+3.3
  • WCHA132–120+2.4
  • WNOP139–126+3.0
  • WUTA125–103+4.4

NYK1602

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1577 → started this one at 1558
  2. First 36 games: +67.6
  3. Last 10 games: −23.6
  • LORL94–103−16.7
  • WTOR112–98+2.3
  • LOKC101–126−15.2
  • WMIL140–106+13.4
  • LDET119–124−13.2
  • W@PHI125–119+5.6
  • LMIN99–116−20.6
  • WATL119–110+5.5
  • W@BKN99–95+3.1
  • WSAC143–120+12.2
Season scoring marginMEM+8.7NYK+6.3

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM+8.7

Scores 123.7, allows 115.0 over 46 games: +8.7 a game.

NYK+6.3

Scores 117.2, allows 110.9 over 46 games: +6.3 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10MEM122.6NYK117.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

MEM122.6scored, +9.8 vs league

FactorMEMLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.8%54.2%+5.5
Turnovers (TOV%)11.5%12.3%+1.2
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)30.9%24.9%+2.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1910.193−0.1
Everything else+0.4

NYK117.8scored, +4.9 vs league

FactorNYKLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.4%54.2%+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.3%+2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)31.6%24.9%+3.0
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2050.193+0.3
Everything else−1.0
Defensive rating, last 10MEM112.6NYK114.8

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

MEM112.6allowed, −0.2 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.5%54.2%−0.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.5%12.3%+1.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.9%24.9%−0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2180.193−0.7
Everything else+0.7

NYK114.8allowed, +2.0 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)56.3%54.2%−3.2
Turnovers (TOV%)13.1%12.3%+1.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)26.5%24.9%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1650.193+0.8
Everything else+0.0
Pace, last 10average 99.3

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 102.2 and NYK 96.4 → average 99.3 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingMEM0.0NYK0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-27 17:30 ET. 12 rotation players.

NYK0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-27 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysNYK2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Jan 25 against UTA.

NYK2days

Last played Jan 25 against SAC.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 25UTA125–10343-8414-3825-341613122.5102.0101.5
Jan 24NOP139–12656-10119-428-81216140.4126.099.5
Jan 22CHA132–12049-9821-4713-141613126.9115.4104.0
Jan 20MIN108–10637-867-3327-341313105.9103.9102.0
Jan 17@SAS140–11255-9719-4411-15710138.6110.9101.0
Jan 15@SAS129–11551-10316-3811-17814124.0111.7103.5
Jan 13@HOU118–12045-8414-3214-21178118.0121.299.5
Jan 11@MIN127–12548-10816-4115-191321124.5122.5102.0
Jan 9HOU115–11942-8410-3221-301910110.6114.4104.0
Jan 6DAL119–10440-8812-3527-351313114.498.1105.0

NYK

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 25SAC143–12052-10517-3622-231117137.5116.5103.5
Jan 21@BKN99–9540-878-2811-14109104.2100.095.0
Jan 20ATL119–11047-909-2616-211512120.2112.298.5
Jan 17MIN99–11635-9014-3415-17915108.8126.191.5
Jan 15@PHI125–11946-8616-3717-241315127.6122.788.3
Jan 13DET119–12440-8015-3724-291710119.0124.0100.0
Jan 12MIL140–10651-8818-4120-241110140.0107.199.5
Jan 10OKC101–12637-964-3123-23101599.0123.5102.0
Jan 8TOR112–9842-8812-3316-201215117.9103.295.0
Jan 6ORL94–10336-814-2218-221210103.3113.291.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
59%
pregame chance the forecast gave NYK, the winner
NYK was the forecast favorite
34 pts
margin miss
forecast +3, actual +37 for NYK
650th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
23rd
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 0.52 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statMEMNYK
Final score106143
Field goals41–91 · 45.1%56–108 · 51.9%
Three-pointers9–24 · 37.5%17–44 · 38.6%
Free throws15–17 · 88.2%14–18 · 77.8%
Rebounds4746
Assists2132
Turnovers2610
Steals520
Blocks97

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · New York Knicks

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (NYK)+3+37+34
Total points231249+18
MEM points114106−8
NYK points117143+26

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
MEM31213222–106
NYK34264241–143

Recent form before this game

Memphis Grizzlies

DateOpponentResult
Jan 25 vs UTA W 125–103
Jan 24 vs NOP W 139–126
Jan 22 vs CHA W 132–120
Jan 20 vs MIN W 108–106
Jan 17 at SAS W 140–112

New York Knicks

DateOpponentResult
Jan 25 vs SAC W 143–120
Jan 21 at BKN W 99–95
Jan 20 vs ATL W 119–110
Jan 17 vs MIN L 99–116
Jan 15 at PHI W 125–119

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 6 2023-24 MEM at NYK MEM 113 – 123 NYK
Jan 13 2023-24 NYK at MEM NYK 106 – 94 MEM
Nov 27 2022-23 MEM at NYK MEM 127 – 123 NYK
Oct 19 2022-23 NYK at MEM NYK 112 – 115 MEM
Mar 11 2021-22 NYK at MEM NYK 114 – 118 MEM