2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards

Thursday, January 30, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

LAL 0–1@WAS 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
LAL Los Angeles Lakers	115	134	+19
WAS Washington Wizards (home)	110	96	−14

Forecast: Los Angeles Lakers to win, 61% win probability, projected margin 5.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	LAL	WAS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1518	1213
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	−234
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−1.3	−14.0
Games played this season	45	47
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	113.2	100.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	113.6	118.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.7
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	24.9	10.6
Rest days	2	1
Second night of a back-to-back	No	Yes

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingLAL1518WAS1213

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

LAL1518

Ended last season at 1570 → started this one at 1553
First 35 games: −30.3
Last 10 games: −4.5

L@DAL97–118−10.2
LSAS102–126−27.4
WMIA117–108+8.2
WBKN102–101+1.6
L@LAC102–116−7.2
WWAS111–88+3.9
WBOS117–96+23.7
W@GSW118–108+11.9
W@CHA112–107+4.6
L@PHI104–118−13.6

WAS1213

Ended last season at 1263 → started this one at 1322
First 37 games: −70.7
Last 10 games: −38.1

LOKC95–136−3.1
LMIN106–120−4.1
LPHX123–130−4.1
L@GSW114–122−1.9
L@SAC100–123−2.6
L@LAL88–111−3.9
L@LAC93–110−2.3
L@PHX109–119−2.0
L@DAL108–130−2.5
LTOR82–106−11.6

Season scoring marginLAL−1.3WAS−14.0

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

LAL−1.3

Scores 111.4, allows 112.7 over 45 games: −1.3 a game.

WAS−14.0

Scores 107.4, allows 121.4 over 47 games: −14.0 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10LAL113.2WAS100.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

LAL113.2scored, +0.4 vs league

Factor	LAL	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.8%	54.2%	+2.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.0%	12.3%	+0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	21.8%	24.9%	−1.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.187	0.193	−0.2
Everything else			−0.9

WAS100.3scored, −12.6 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	47.6%	54.2%	−10.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.3%	12.3%	+0.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	20.0%	24.9%	−2.2
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.193	−0.0
Everything else			−0.4

Defensive rating, last 10LAL113.6WAS118.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.8).

LAL113.6allowed, +0.8 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.2%	−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.3%	12.3%	−1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.9%	24.9%	+0.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.148	0.193	+1.3
Everything else			−0.1

WAS118.7allowed, +5.9 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.9%	54.2%	−2.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.4%	12.3%	−1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.6%	24.9%	−0.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.222	0.193	−0.8
Everything else			−0.8

Pace, last 10average 98.7

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

LAL 95.7 and WAS 101.7 → average 98.7 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingLAL24.9WAS10.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

LAL24.9pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Anthony Davis	24.9	31.9	9

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-30 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

WAS10.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Alex Sarr	10.6	25.6	9

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-30 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestLAL2 daysWAS1 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

LAL2days

Last played Jan 28 against PHI.

WAS1day, back-to-back

Last played Jan 29 against TOR.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

LAL

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 28	@PHI	104–118	37-72	10-33	20-23	22	4	104.0	118.0	100.0
Jan 27	@CHA	112–107	44-86	6-28	18-24	16	11	117.9	111.5	95.5
Jan 25	@GSW	118–108	47-86	10-29	14-17	12	10	121.6	112.5	96.5
Jan 23	BOS	117–96	42-89	15-35	18-20	6	10	124.5	102.1	94.0
Jan 21	WAS	111–88	43-90	11-34	14-18	10	7	112.1	87.1	100.0
Jan 19	@LAC	102–116	38-76	9-27	17-19	15	5	107.4	120.8	95.5
Jan 17	BKN	102–101	38-82	12-34	14-18	10	6	112.1	111.0	91.0
Jan 15	MIA	117–108	47-90	13-34	10-14	6	6	123.2	113.7	95.0
Jan 13	SAS	102–126	39-87	14-44	10-16	19	13	106.3	131.3	96.0
Jan 7	@DAL	97–118	34-75	11-35	18-24	10	5	103.2	128.3	93.0

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Jan 29	TOR	82–106	28-72	5-30	21-29	25	7	85.4	108.2	97.0
Jan 27	@DAL	108–130	42-101	11-37	13-17	11	10	109.1	132.7	98.5
Jan 25	@PHX	109–119	42-90	18-41	7-9	8	5	110.1	120.2	99.0
Jan 23	@LAC	93–110	32-94	11-46	18-21	15	13	89.4	105.8	104.0
Jan 21	@LAL	88–111	34-95	11-43	9-13	11	9	87.1	112.1	100.0
Jan 19	@SAC	100–123	32-89	10-42	26-32	16	9	92.6	113.9	108.0
Jan 18	@GSW	114–122	38-86	22-45	16-23	13	11	117.5	123.2	98.0
Jan 16	PHX	123–130	46-92	13-41	18-27	13	12	116.0	123.8	105.5
Jan 13	MIN	106–120	40-91	17-40	9-15	11	8	106.0	118.8	100.5
Jan 12	OKC	95–136	28-83	9-46	30-33	16	7	89.6	128.3	106.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

61%

pregame chance the forecast gave LAL, the winner

LAL was the forecast favorite

33 pts

margin miss

forecast −5, actual −38 for WAS

691st

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

29th

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 0.49 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	LAL	WAS
Final score	134	96
Field goals	49–90 · 54.4%	29–91 · 31.9%
Three-pointers	15–32 · 46.9%	10–44 · 22.7%
Free throws	21–22 · 95.5%	28–34 · 82.4%
Rebounds	48	38
Assists	31	18
Turnovers	11	13
Steals	9	4
Blocks	6	6

How the model does with these teams over time: Los Angeles Lakers · Washington Wizards

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (WAS)	−5	−38	−33
Total points	225	230	+5
LAL points	115	134	+19
WAS points	110	96	−14

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
LAL	42	36	27	29	–	134
WAS	29	16	25	26	–	96

Recent form before this game