2023-24 · Regular Season · Final

Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics

Sunday, March 3, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

GSW 0–0@BOS 4–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
GSW Golden State Warriors	110	88	−22
BOS Boston Celtics (home)	118	140	+22

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	GSW	BOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1596	1732
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+206
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	+2.3	+10.7
Games played this season	59	59
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	115.8	128.2
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	109.0	108.5
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	100.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	25.6	23.8
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingGSW1596BOS1732

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

GSW1596

Ended last season at 1581 → started this one at 1560
First 49 games: −6.2
Last 10 games: +42.0

WPHX113–112+3.5
W@UTA129–107+19.7
LLAC125–130−7.3
W@UTA140–137+5.3
WLAL128–110+9.4
WCHA97–84+2.4
LDEN103–119−17.7
W@WAS123–112+4.3
W@NYK110–99+13.2
W@TOR120–105+9.2

BOS1732

Ended last season at 1654 → started this one at 1616
First 49 games: +63.8
Last 10 games: +52.2

WMEM131–91+6.0
WATL125–117+2.0
WWAS133–129+0.6
W@MIA110–106+4.0
W@BKN118–110+4.3
WBKN136–86+6.8
W@CHI129–112+8.3
W@NYK116–102+10.4
WPHI117–99+3.2
WDAL138–110+6.6

Season scoring marginGSW+2.3BOS+10.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

GSW+2.3

Scores 119.1, allows 116.8 over 59 games: +2.3 a game.

BOS+10.7

Scores 121.0, allows 110.2 over 59 games: +10.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10GSW115.8BOS128.2

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

GSW115.8scored, +0.8 vs league

Factor	GSW	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.1%	54.8%	+0.4
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.8%	11.6%	−0.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.9%	24.2%	+1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.134	0.199	−1.9
Everything else			+1.0

BOS128.2scored, +13.1 vs league

Factor	BOS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	62.5%	54.8%	+11.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	11.6%	+1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	23.3%	24.2%	−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.192	0.199	−0.2
Everything else			+0.3

Defensive rating, last 10GSW109.0BOS108.5

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 115.0).

GSW109.0allowed, −6.0 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.8%	54.8%	+4.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.5%	11.6%	+1.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	25.4%	24.2%	−0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.184	0.199	+0.4
Everything else			+0.2

BOS108.5allowed, −6.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.5%	54.8%	+6.6
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.3%	11.6%	−1.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	22.6%	24.2%	+0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.161	0.199	+1.1
Everything else			−0.2

Pace, last 10average 100.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

GSW 102.3 and BOS 98.0 → average 100.2 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.7)

Rotation points missingGSW25.6BOS23.8

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

GSW25.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Andrew Wiggins	15.1	28.8	7
Brandin Podziemski	10.4	30.6	9

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-03 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

BOS23.8pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Kristaps Porziņģis	23.8	29.1	9

Source: official injury report, 2024-03-03 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestGSW2 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

GSW2days

Last played Mar 1 against TOR.

BOS2days

Last played Mar 1 against DAL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

GSW

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 1	@TOR	120–105	44-98	18-44	14-18	14	15	114.3	101.0	104.5
Feb 29	@NYK	110–99	44-98	14-44	8-16	11	16	111.1	101.0	98.5
Feb 27	@WAS	123–112	47-94	21-46	8-11	18	9	116.0	107.7	105.0
Feb 25	DEN	103–119	35-81	11-34	22-29	17	11	104.0	121.4	98.5
Feb 23	CHA	97–84	38-89	13-42	8-10	21	13	98.0	84.0	99.5
Feb 22	LAL	128–110	50-107	16-41	12-14	9	15	128.0	108.9	100.5
Feb 15	@UTA	140–137	49-92	20-42	22-28	13	13	135.9	131.7	103.5
Feb 14	LAC	125–130	47-103	18-47	13-18	9	13	120.2	126.2	103.5
Feb 12	@UTA	129–107	48-100	20-44	13-17	13	12	122.9	101.9	105.0
Feb 10	PHX	113–112	45-101	17-41	6-11	13	13	107.6	106.7	105.0

BOS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Mar 1	DAL	138–110	52-94	21-43	13-13	9	9	138.0	110.0	100.0
Feb 27	PHI	117–99	39-74	5-22	34-37	14	9	119.4	102.1	97.5
Feb 24	@NYK	116–102	46-81	15-35	9-12	7	11	138.1	122.9	83.5
Feb 22	@CHI	129–112	45-83	23-47	16-21	13	5	129.0	112.0	100.0
Feb 14	BKN	136–86	52-91	22-45	10-12	8	10	146.2	90.5	94.0
Feb 13	@BKN	118–110	43-83	15-37	17-23	13	7	122.9	114.6	96.0
Feb 11	@MIA	110–106	41-81	16-39	12-17	9	6	120.9	116.5	91.0
Feb 9	WAS	133–129	48-92	11-34	26-28	13	9	119.8	117.3	110.5
Feb 7	ATL	125–117	49-93	17-49	10-11	14	6	119.0	110.4	105.5
Feb 4	MEM	131–91	48-99	19-51	16-18	10	17	128.4	89.2	102.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2023-24 surprise games

70%

pregame chance the forecast gave BOS, the winner

BOS was the forecast favorite

44 pts

margin miss

forecast +8, actual +52 for BOS

1115th

most surprising result of 2023-24

of 1,312 graded games

4th

largest margin miss of 2023-24

outcome surprise 0.36 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	GSW	BOS
Final score	88	140
Field goals	36–92 · 39.1%	53–96 · 55.2%
Three-pointers	7–41 · 17.1%	25–49 · 51.0%
Free throws	9–13 · 69.2%	9–11 · 81.8%
Rebounds	46	51
Assists	24	35
Turnovers	17	7
Steals	2	10
Blocks	3	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Golden State Warriors · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)	+8	+52	+44
Total points	228	228	±0
GSW points	110	88	−22
BOS points	118	140	+22

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
GSW	22	16	24	26	–	88
BOS	44	38	33	25	–	140

Recent form before this game