2023-24 · Playoffs · Final
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
Wednesday, April 24, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded
MIA 5–2@BOS 5–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA Miami Heat | 102 | 111 | +9 |
| BOS Boston Celtics (home) | 110 | 101 | −9 |
Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 70% win probability, projected margin 8.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | MIA | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1549 | 1738 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +258 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | +1.5 | +11.4 |
| Games played this season | 83 | 83 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 113.5 | 120.5 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 110.7 | 108.2 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 96.0 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 38.8 | 6.3 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
| Playoff series state | 0 home series wins | |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingMIA1549BOS1738
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
MIA1549
- Ended last season at 1600 → started this one at 1575
- First 73 games: −35.9
- Last 10 games: +10.1
- W@WAS119–107+5.0
- WNYK109–99+8.9
- LPHI105–109−10.0
- W@HOU119–104+15.4
- L@IND115–117−3.4
- W@ATL117–111+7.7
- LDAL92–111−15.2
- WTOR125–103+4.0
- WTOR118–103+3.0
- L@BOS94–114−5.3
BOS1738
- Ended last season at 1654 → started this one at 1616
- First 73 games: +131.4
- Last 10 games: −9.4
- W@NOP104–92+9.6
- W@CHA118–104+1.8
- WOKC135–100+9.7
- WSAC101–100+1.0
- WPOR124–107+1.0
- L@MIL91–104−21.2
- LNYK109–118−19.0
- WCHA131–98+1.8
- WWAS132–122+0.6
- WMIA114–94+5.3
Season scoring marginMIA+1.5BOS+11.4
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
MIA+1.5
Scores 110.0, allows 108.5 over 83 games: +1.5 a game.
BOS+11.4
Scores 120.5, allows 109.0 over 83 games: +11.4 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10MIA113.5BOS120.5
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).
MIA113.5scored, −1.0 vs league
| Factor | MIA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 55.6% | 54.7% | +1.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.8% | 11.6% | −0.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.0% | 24.1% | −0.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.208 | 0.194 | +0.4 | |
| Everything else | −1.4 |
BOS120.5scored, +5.9 vs league
| Factor | BOS | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.5% | 54.7% | +5.7 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.9% | 11.6% | +2.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 25.4% | 24.1% | +0.6 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.130 | 0.194 | −1.8 | |
| Everything else | −0.8 |
Defensive rating, last 10MIA110.7BOS108.2
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24 to date: 114.5).
MIA110.7allowed, −3.8 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 52.7% | 54.7% | +3.0 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 11.3% | 11.6% | −0.5 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 18.7% | 24.1% | +2.4 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.181 | 0.194 | +0.4 | |
| Everything else | −1.6 |
BOS108.2allowed, −6.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 51.9% | 54.7% | +4.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.8% | 11.6% | −1.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 21.8% | 24.1% | +1.0 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.123 | 0.194 | +2.0 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
Pace, last 10average 96.0
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
MIA 95.9 and BOS 96.0 → average 96.0 (league 2023-24 to date: 99.1)
Rotation points missingMIA38.8BOS6.3
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
MIA38.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier | 20.0 | 29.9 | 5 |
| Jimmy Butler III | 18.8 | 35.0 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-04-24 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.
BOS6.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kornet | 6.2 | 16.6 | 8 |
Source: official injury report, 2024-04-24 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestMIA3 daysBOS3 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
MIA3days
Last played Apr 21 against BOS.
BOS3days
Last played Apr 21 against MIA.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
MIA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 | @BOS | 94–114 | 38-81 | 12-37 | 6-6 | 9 | 5 | 105.6 | 126.7 | 89.5 |
| Apr 14 | TOR | 118–103 | 46-87 | 9-36 | 17-19 | 19 | 13 | 116.8 | 104.0 | 100.0 |
| Apr 12 | TOR | 125–103 | 45-86 | 17-41 | 18-23 | 4 | 6 | 127.6 | 106.2 | 97.5 |
| Apr 10 | DAL | 92–111 | 33-81 | 13-30 | 13-13 | 15 | 12 | 101.1 | 122.0 | 91.0 |
| Apr 9 | @ATL | 117–111 | 42-88 | 18-45 | 15-21 | 18 | 5 | 104.5 | 100.9 | 91.9 |
| Apr 7 | @IND | 115–117 | 39-84 | 8-27 | 29-32 | 7 | 8 | 121.1 | 121.9 | 95.5 |
| Apr 5 | @HOU | 119–104 | 44-89 | 13-36 | 18-21 | 9 | 8 | 119.0 | 105.1 | 99.5 |
| Apr 4 | PHI | 105–109 | 39-94 | 13-43 | 14-16 | 15 | 16 | 107.1 | 110.1 | 98.5 |
| Apr 2 | NYK | 109–99 | 36-74 | 17-38 | 20-21 | 17 | 7 | 117.2 | 107.6 | 92.5 |
| Mar 31 | @WAS | 119–107 | 40-81 | 14-36 | 25-29 | 13 | 6 | 115.5 | 102.9 | 103.5 |
BOS
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 | MIA | 114–94 | 39-82 | 22-49 | 14-16 | 10 | 10 | 126.7 | 105.6 | 89.5 |
| Apr 14 | WAS | 132–122 | 51-89 | 16-32 | 14-21 | 14 | 10 | 124.5 | 116.2 | 105.5 |
| Apr 12 | CHA | 131–98 | 54-104 | 14-41 | 9-13 | 6 | 16 | 129.7 | 98.0 | 100.5 |
| Apr 11 | NYK | 109–118 | 40-86 | 16-42 | 13-16 | 12 | 10 | 113.5 | 121.6 | 96.5 |
| Apr 9 | @MIL | 91–104 | 37-93 | 17-52 | 0-0 | 12 | 12 | 101.1 | 115.6 | 90.0 |
| Apr 7 | POR | 124–107 | 49-87 | 16-38 | 10-13 | 12 | 5 | 124.0 | 107.0 | 100.0 |
| Apr 5 | SAC | 101–100 | 38-89 | 12-44 | 13-18 | 7 | 9 | 108.6 | 105.3 | 94.0 |
| Apr 3 | OKC | 135–100 | 50-92 | 17-40 | 18-19 | 10 | 11 | 137.8 | 102.0 | 98.0 |
| Apr 1 | @CHA | 118–104 | 43-89 | 19-53 | 13-16 | 10 | 11 | 126.9 | 110.6 | 93.5 |
| Mar 30 | @NOP | 104–92 | 39-82 | 15-37 | 11-12 | 12 | 8 | 111.8 | 100.0 | 92.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2023-24 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIA | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 111 | 101 |
| Field goals | 37–75 · 49.3% | 37–80 · 46.3% |
| Three-pointers | 23–43 · 53.5% | 12–32 · 37.5% |
| Free throws | 14–18 · 77.8% | 15–21 · 71.4% |
| Rebounds | 40 | 39 |
| Assists | 25 | 21 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 12 |
| Steals | 9 | 9 |
| Blocks | 1 | 8 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · Boston Celtics
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (BOS) | +8 | −10 | −18 |
| Total points | 212 | 212 | ±0 |
| MIA points | 102 | 111 | +9 |
| BOS points | 110 | 101 | −9 |
Score by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 28 | 30 | 27 | 26 | – | 111 |
| BOS | 27 | 34 | 18 | 22 | – | 101 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 2023-24 | MIA at BOS | MIA 94 – 114 BOS |
| Feb 11 2023-24 | BOS at MIA | BOS 110 – 106 MIA |
| Jan 25 2023-24 | BOS at MIA | BOS 143 – 110 MIA |
| Oct 27 2023-24 | MIA at BOS | MIA 111 – 119 BOS |
| May 29 2022-23 | MIA at BOS | MIA 103 – 84 BOS |