2025-26 · Playoffs · Final
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
Sunday, April 26, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET
BOS 3–4@PHI 5–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS Boston Celtics | 109 | 128 | +19 |
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) | 102 | 96 | −6 |
Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 68% win probability, projected margin 7.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtNo saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | BOS | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 128 | 96 |
| Field goals | 42–87 · 48.3% | 33–80 · 41.3% |
| Three-pointers | 24–53 · 45.3% | 9–30 · 30.0% |
| Free throws | 20–28 · 71.4% | 21–24 · 87.5% |
| Rebounds | 51 | 30 |
| Assists | 28 | 25 |
| Turnovers | 12 | 8 |
| Steals | 5 | 6 |
| Blocks | 5 | 7 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Philadelphia 76ers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (PHI) | −7 | −32 | −25 |
| Total points | 211 | 224 | +13 |
| BOS points | 109 | 128 | +19 |
| PHI points | 102 | 96 | −6 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-26 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
Boston Celtics
No players listed.
Philadelphia 76ers
- Doubtful Joel Embiid
- Questionable Kelly Oubre Jr.
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24 2025-26 | BOS at PHI | BOS 108 – 100 PHI |
| Apr 21 2025-26 | PHI at BOS | PHI 111 – 97 BOS |
| Apr 19 2025-26 | PHI at BOS | PHI 91 – 123 BOS |
| Mar 1 2025-26 | PHI at BOS | PHI 98 – 114 BOS |
| Nov 11 2025-26 | BOS at PHI | BOS 100 – 102 PHI |