2025-26 · Playoffs · Final
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
Friday, April 24, 2026 · tip-off 7:00 PM ET
BOS 3–4@PHI 5–4 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS Boston Celtics | 107 | 108 | +1 |
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) | 103 | 100 | −3 |
Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 60% win probability, projected margin 4.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtNo saved inputs are stored with this game's forecast.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | BOS | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 108 | 100 |
| Field goals | 36–81 · 44.4% | 38–87 · 43.7% |
| Three-pointers | 20–47 · 42.6% | 12–35 · 34.3% |
| Free throws | 16–17 · 94.1% | 12–16 · 75.0% |
| Rebounds | 45 | 37 |
| Assists | 21 | 18 |
| Turnovers | 17 | 11 |
| Steals | 6 | 6 |
| Blocks | 11 | 8 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Boston Celtics · Philadelphia 76ers
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (PHI) | −4 | −8 | −4 |
| Total points | 210 | 208 | −2 |
| BOS points | 107 | 108 | +1 |
| PHI points | 103 | 100 | −3 |
Injury report
Official NBA injury report, 2026-04-24 17:30 ET (the latest stored report before the forecast was saved). Two-way and G League assignments are omitted. The model counts players listed Out or Doubtful; Questionable players are treated as available.
Boston Celtics
No players listed.
Philadelphia 76ers
- Out Joel Embiid
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 2025-26 | PHI at BOS | PHI 111 – 97 BOS |
| Apr 19 2025-26 | PHI at BOS | PHI 91 – 123 BOS |
| Mar 1 2025-26 | PHI at BOS | PHI 98 – 114 BOS |
| Nov 11 2025-26 | BOS at PHI | BOS 100 – 102 PHI |
| Oct 31 2025-26 | BOS at PHI | BOS 109 – 108 PHI |