2025-26 · Regular Season · Final
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
Tuesday, February 10, 2026 · tip-off 7:30 PM ET
IND 2–1@NYK 1–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND Indiana Pacers | 106 | 137 | +31 |
| NYK New York Knicks (home) | 118 | 134 | +16 |
Forecast: New York Knicks to win, 80% win probability, projected margin 12.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | IND | NYK |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1360 | 1599 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | +309 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −7.9 | +5.4 |
| Games played this season | 53 | 52 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 110.4 | 117.3 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 116.9 | 100.7 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 98.8 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 20.3 | 15.8 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | No |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingIND1360NYK1599
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
IND1360
- Ended last season at 1673 → started this one at 1630
- First 43 games: −256.8
- Last 10 games: −13.2
- L@PHI104–113−4.6
- L@BOS104–119−2.7
- W@OKC117–114+16.1
- L@ATL116–132−6.8
- WCHI113–110+6.0
- WATL129–124+8.2
- LHOU114–118−3.4
- LUTA122–131−15.4
- L@MIL99–105−4.7
- L@TOR104–122−5.9
NYK1599
- Ended last season at 1606 → started this one at 1580
- First 42 games: −76.2
- Last 10 games: +95.7
- WBKN120–66+13.0
- W@PHI112–109+6.4
- WSAC103–87+5.1
- W@TOR119–92+26.5
- WPOR127–97+12.7
- WLAL112–100+7.2
- W@WAS132–101+9.1
- WDEN134–127+5.5
- L@DET80–118−18.0
- W@BOS111–89+28.2
Season scoring marginIND−7.9NYK+5.4
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
IND−7.9
Scores 110.6, allows 118.5 over 53 games: −7.9 a game.
NYK+5.4
Scores 117.1, allows 111.7 over 52 games: +5.4 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10IND110.4NYK117.3
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
IND110.4scored, −4.2 vs league
| Factor | IND | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.6% | 54.5% | +0.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 12.7% | 12.2% | −0.6 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.186 | 0.211 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | −3.0 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
NYK117.3scored, +2.7 vs league
| Factor | NYK | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.6% | 54.5% | +3.2 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.8% | 12.2% | +2.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.166 | 0.211 | −1.3 | |
| Everything else | −1.3 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Defensive rating, last 10IND116.9NYK100.7
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 114.6).
IND116.9allowed, +2.3 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.5% | 54.5% | −0.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 9.8% | 12.2% | −3.4 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.223 | 0.211 | −0.3 | |
| Everything else | +1.6 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
NYK100.7allowed, −14.0 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 48.3% | 54.5% | +9.3 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 13.1% | 12.2% | +1.2 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | n/a | 26.2% | – | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.192 | 0.211 | +0.5 | |
| Everything else | +2.9 |
Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 10 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".
Pace, last 10average 98.8
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
IND 101.6 and NYK 95.9 → average 98.8 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.3)
Rotation points missingIND20.3NYK15.8
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
IND20.3pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jarace Walker | 15.6 | 27.2 | 10 |
| Johnny Furphy | 4.7 | 21.3 | 10 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-10 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
NYK15.8pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miles McBride | 10.7 | 25.0 | 3 |
| Mitchell Robinson | 5.1 | 21.2 | 8 |
Source: official injury report, 2026-02-10 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
RestIND2 daysNYK2 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
IND2days
Last played Feb 8 against TOR.
NYK2days
Last played Feb 8 against BOS.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
IND
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8 | @TOR | 104–122 | 40-89 | 12-33 | 12-14 | 19 | – | 101.0 | 117.3 | 103.5 |
| Feb 6 | @MIL | 99–105 | 35-79 | 12-43 | 17-21 | 9 | – | 106.5 | 114.1 | 92.5 |
| Feb 3 | UTA | 122–131 | 45-84 | 14-39 | 18-27 | 15 | – | 116.2 | 126.0 | 104.5 |
| Feb 2 | HOU | 114–118 | 43-87 | 12-26 | 16-21 | 10 | – | 115.2 | 120.4 | 98.5 |
| Jan 31 | ATL | 129–124 | 48-89 | 15-32 | 18-21 | 23 | – | 119.4 | 113.8 | 108.5 |
| Jan 28 | CHI | 113–110 | 38-85 | 15-36 | 22-25 | 6 | – | 115.3 | 113.4 | 97.5 |
| Jan 26 | @ATL | 116–132 | 43-93 | 10-35 | 20-25 | 16 | – | 106.4 | 118.9 | 110.0 |
| Jan 23 | @OKC | 117–114 | 45-96 | 16-38 | 11-20 | 10 | – | 117.0 | 112.9 | 100.5 |
| Jan 21 | @BOS | 104–119 | 37-94 | 12-45 | 18-23 | 13 | – | 103.0 | 117.8 | 101.0 |
| Jan 19 | @PHI | 104–113 | 40-84 | 13-34 | 11-14 | 22 | – | 104.0 | 114.1 | 99.5 |
NYK
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8 | @BOS | 111–89 | 40-83 | 14-35 | 17-24 | 8 | – | 120.7 | 94.7 | 93.0 |
| Feb 6 | @DET | 80–118 | 29-82 | 8-33 | 14-17 | 13 | – | 84.2 | 126.9 | 94.0 |
| Feb 4 | DEN | 134–127 | 50-100 | 18-50 | 16-19 | 11 | – | 120.7 | 114.4 | 91.9 |
| Feb 3 | @WAS | 132–101 | 47-90 | 17-37 | 21-27 | 9 | – | 130.7 | 100.0 | 101.0 |
| Feb 1 | LAL | 112–100 | 43-91 | 18-42 | 8-11 | 7 | – | 120.4 | 107.5 | 93.0 |
| Jan 30 | POR | 127–97 | 48-99 | 19-45 | 12-14 | 13 | – | 127.0 | 97.0 | 100.0 |
| Jan 28 | @TOR | 119–92 | 45-90 | 14-38 | 15-18 | 16 | – | 117.8 | 92.0 | 100.5 |
| Jan 27 | SAC | 103–87 | 37-78 | 13-32 | 16-18 | 18 | – | 108.4 | 90.6 | 95.5 |
| Jan 24 | @PHI | 112–109 | 41-93 | 15-44 | 15-27 | 10 | – | 114.3 | 112.4 | 97.5 |
| Jan 21 | BKN | 120–66 | 46-80 | 16-32 | 12-17 | 12 | – | 129.0 | 71.0 | 93.0 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2025-26 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | IND | NYK |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 137 | 134 |
| Field goals | 50–97 · 51.5% | 50–100 · 50.0% |
| Three-pointers | 18–45 · 40.0% | 14–46 · 30.4% |
| Free throws | 19–26 · 73.1% | 20–27 · 74.1% |
| Rebounds | 43 | 46 |
| Assists | 30 | 33 |
| Turnovers | 11 | 12 |
| Steals | 6 | 4 |
| Blocks | 4 | 4 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Indiana Pacers · New York Knicks
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (NYK) | +12 | −3 | −15 |
| Total points | 224 | 271 | +47 |
| IND points | 106 | 137 | +31 |
| NYK points | 118 | 134 | +16 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 18 2025-26 | NYK at IND | NYK 114 – 113 IND |
| May 31 2024-25 | NYK at IND | NYK 108 – 125 IND |
| May 29 2024-25 | IND at NYK | IND 94 – 111 NYK |
| May 27 2024-25 | NYK at IND | NYK 121 – 130 IND |
| May 25 2024-25 | NYK at IND | NYK 106 – 100 IND |