The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Jan 10

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

New Orleans Pelicans at Philadelphia 76ers

Friday, January 10, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded

NOP 0–1@PHI 2–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: NOP 23 percent, PHI 77 percent. NOP Pelicans 23% proj. 105 · final 123 PHI 76ers · home 77% proj. 116 · final 115
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
NOP New Orleans Pelicans 105 123 +18
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home) 116 115 −1

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 77% win probability, projected margin 11.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputNOPPHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 13251471
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +216
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −10.1−3.1
Games played this season 3835
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 110.5113.3
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 116.1114.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 98.9
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 32.629.4
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingNOP1325PHI1471

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

NOP1325

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1553 → started this one at 1540
  2. First 28 games: −184.5
  3. Last 10 games: −30.2
  • LNYK93–104−4.8
  • LDEN129–132−2.8
  • LHOU111–128−6.5
  • LMEM124–132−4.4
  • LLAC113–116−2.8
  • L@MIA108–119−2.9
  • WWAS132–120+7.3
  • W@WAS110–98+12.1
  • LMIN97–104−4.8
  • LPOR100–119−20.6

PHI1471

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1532 → started this one at 1524
  2. First 25 games: −76.4
  3. Last 10 games: +22.8
  • L@CLE99–126−6.5
  • WSAS111–106+5.4
  • W@BOS118–114+14.5
  • W@UTA114–111+5.3
  • W@POR125–103+14.4
  • L@SAC107–113−5.9
  • L@GSW105–139−14.5
  • W@BKN123–94+21.4
  • LPHX99–109−13.4
  • WWAS109–103+2.1
Season scoring marginNOP−10.1PHI−3.1

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

NOP−10.1

Scores 107.0, allows 117.2 over 38 games: −10.1 a game.

PHI−3.1

Scores 107.4, allows 110.5 over 35 games: −3.1 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10NOP110.5PHI113.3

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

NOP110.5scored, −2.1 vs league

FactorNOPLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)52.3%54.2%−2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)12.0%12.5%+0.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)23.2%24.7%−0.7
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1730.193−0.6
Everything else+1.3

PHI113.3scored, +0.7 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.5%54.2%−1.0
Turnovers (TOV%)10.9%12.5%+2.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)19.6%24.7%−2.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2480.193+1.6
Everything else+0.1
Defensive rating, last 10NOP116.1PHI114.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.6).

NOP116.1allowed, +3.5 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)55.9%54.2%−2.6
Turnovers (TOV%)13.8%12.5%+1.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)33.2%24.7%−3.8
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2010.193−0.2
Everything else+1.3

PHI114.4allowed, +1.8 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)57.3%54.2%−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)15.1%12.5%+3.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)27.5%24.7%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1560.193+1.1
Everything else−0.6
Pace, last 10average 98.9

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

NOP 99.9 and PHI 98.0 → average 98.9 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.8)

Rotation points missingNOP32.6PHI29.4

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

NOP32.6pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Trey Murphy III24.234.38
Herbert Jones8.432.410

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-10 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

PHI29.4pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Joel Embiid26.829.26
Kyle Lowry2.616.67

Source: official injury report, 2025-01-10 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestNOP2 daysPHI2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

NOP2days

Last played Jan 8 against POR.

PHI2days

Last played Jan 8 against WAS.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

NOP

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 8POR100–11940-9012-378-111710108.7128.092.5
Jan 7MIN97–10435-9412-4115-241410100.0105.198.0
Jan 5@WAS110–9837-9018-4918-20119112.299.098.5
Jan 3WAS132–12048-9618-4118-22711128.2118.8102.0
Jan 1@MIA108–11940-809-3419-22104113.7126.694.5
Dec 30LAC113–11642-8218-3711-14166115.3119.697.5
Dec 27MEM124–13243-9611-3827-291710113.8120.0109.5
Dec 26HOU111–12843-9912-3713-181315107.8123.1103.5
Dec 22DEN129–13250-10812-4017-23138106.6110.0109.1
Dec 21NYK93–10434-8312-3413-19191698.9110.694.0

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Jan 8WAS109–10340-8815-4414-1978118.5112.092.0
Jan 6PHX99–10934-8715-4016-261012104.2113.595.5
Jan 4@BKN123–9442-8215-4024-30177116.089.5105.5
Jan 2@GSW105–13934-819-3128-34115106.1140.499.0
Jan 1@SAC107–11340-8415-4012-14186108.1115.398.5
Dec 30@POR125–10343-7511-2428-31198128.9106.297.0
Dec 28@UTA114–11136-8313-3629-3789116.3113.398.0
Dec 25@BOS118–11441-8817-4019-1964122.9117.596.5
Dec 23SAS111–10639-9316-4417-2398109.9105.0101.0
Dec 21@CLE99–12634-8511-3420-27138102.1131.396.5

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
23%
pregame chance the forecast gave NOP, the winner
the forecast favored PHI
19 pts
margin miss
forecast +11, actual −8 for PHI
26th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
208th
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.47 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statNOPPHI
Final score123115
Field goals44–91 · 48.4%42–91 · 46.2%
Three-pointers18–40 · 45.0%14–38 · 36.8%
Free throws17–26 · 65.4%17–19 · 89.5%
Rebounds4442
Assists3123
Turnovers129
Steals77
Blocks83

How the model does with these teams over time: New Orleans Pelicans · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)+11−8−19
Total points221238+17
NOP points105123+18
PHI points116115−1

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
NOP28253436–123
PHI24233137–115

Recent form before this game

New Orleans Pelicans

DateOpponentResult
Jan 8 vs POR L 100–119
Jan 7 vs MIN L 97–104
Jan 5 at WAS W 110–98
Jan 3 vs WAS W 132–120
Jan 1 at MIA L 108–119

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Jan 8 vs WAS W 109–103
Jan 6 vs PHX L 99–109
Jan 4 at BKN W 123–94
Jan 2 at GSW L 105–139
Jan 1 at SAC L 107–113

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Mar 8 2023-24 NOP at PHI NOP 103 – 95 PHI
Nov 29 2023-24 PHI at NOP PHI 114 – 124 NOP
Jan 2 2022-23 NOP at PHI NOP 111 – 120 PHI
Dec 30 2022-23 PHI at NOP PHI 116 – 127 NOP
Jan 25 2021-22 NOP at PHI NOP 107 – 117 PHI