The Hoop Ledger 2026-27 season
← Forecasts for Dec 25

2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Wednesday, December 25, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

PHI 1–2@BOS 0–2 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Win probability as a share of the court: PHI 21 percent, BOS 79 percent. PHI 76ers 21% proj. 106 · final 118 BOS Celtics · home 79% proj. 118 · final 114
Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Forecast and result

TeamProjectedFinalDifference
PHI Philadelphia 76ers 106 118 +12
BOS Boston Celtics (home) 118 114 −4

Forecast: Boston Celtics to win, 79% win probability, projected margin 12.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built
What the model received
InputPHIBOS
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. 14471690
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court +313
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. −4.5+9.5
Games played this season 2729
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. 111.4114.1
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. 109.5106.1
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. 99.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. 20.512.5
Rest days 22
Second night of a back-to-back NoNo

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingPHI1447BOS1690

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

PHI1447

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1532 → started this one at 1524
  2. First 17 games: −122.1
  3. Last 10 games: +44.7
  • W@DET111–96+17.7
  • W@CHA110–104+8.0
  • LORL102–106−4.5
  • WORL102–94+12.4
  • W@CHI108–100+12.3
  • LIND107–121−16.3
  • W@CHA121–108+11.6
  • WCHA108–98+4.6
  • L@CLE99–126−6.5
  • WSAS111–106+5.4

BOS1690

1500
  1. Ended last season at 1742 → started this one at 1682
  2. First 19 games: +39.4
  3. Last 10 games: −31.3
  • L@CLE111–115−7.8
  • WMIA108–89+4.7
  • WDET130–120+1.4
  • WMIL111–105+2.0
  • LMEM121–127−16.4
  • WDET123–99+3.0
  • W@WAS112–98+2.0
  • LCHI108–117−22.8
  • W@CHI123–98+10.6
  • L@ORL104–108−8.0
Season scoring marginPHI−4.5BOS+9.5

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

PHI−4.5

Scores 105.9, allows 110.4 over 27 games: −4.5 a game.

BOS+9.5

Scores 119.1, allows 109.6 over 29 games: +9.5 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10PHI111.4BOS114.1

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.4).

PHI111.4scored, −0.9 vs league

FactorPHILeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.6%54.2%−0.9
Turnovers (TOV%)12.9%12.6%−0.5
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.6%24.5%−1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.2070.196+0.3
Everything else+1.4

BOS114.1scored, +1.7 vs league

FactorBOSLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)53.2%54.2%−1.4
Turnovers (TOV%)10.6%12.6%+2.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.7%24.5%+0.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1700.196−0.8
Everything else+0.5
Defensive rating, last 10PHI109.5BOS106.1

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 112.4).

PHI109.5allowed, −2.9 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)54.3%54.2%−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)14.5%12.6%+2.7
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)25.5%24.5%−0.4
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1770.196+0.6
Everything else+0.3

BOS106.1allowed, −6.3 vs league

FactorOpponentsLeaguehurtshelpsPts
Shooting (eFG%)51.5%54.2%+4.1
Turnovers (TOV%)11.9%12.6%−1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)21.1%24.5%+1.5
Free throws (FTM per FGA)0.1610.196+1.0
Everything else+0.7
Pace, last 10average 99.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

PHI 96.9 and BOS 101.2 → average 99.1 (league 2024-25 to date: 100.0)

Rotation points missingPHI20.5BOS12.5

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

PHI20.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jared McCain11.827.96
Eric Gordon4.515.44
Andre Drummond4.115.08

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-25 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.

BOS12.5pts/g missing

PlayerPtsMinGames
Jrue Holiday12.529.88

Source: official injury report, 2024-12-25 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.

RestPHI2 daysBOS2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

PHI2days

Last played Dec 23 against SAS.

BOS2days

Last played Dec 23 against ORL.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

PHI

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 23SAS111–10639-9316-4417-2398109.9105.0101.0
Dec 21@CLE99–12634-8511-3420-27138102.1131.396.5
Dec 20CHA108–9841-8312-3314-18149117.4107.791.5
Dec 16@CHA121–10841-8016-3823-30208118.6105.9102.0
Dec 13IND107–12137-8510-2523-321510109.2122.298.5
Dec 8@CHI108–10043-929-3613-14158104.997.1103.0
Dec 6ORL102–9438-797-2619-29158107.497.995.5
Dec 4ORL102–10640-8211-3011-19148113.3119.189.5
Dec 3@CHA110–10438-8216-4018-20128118.3111.893.0
Nov 30@DET111–9642-8511-3116-22148113.397.098.5

BOS

DateOppScoreFG3PFTTOVOREBOffDefPace
Dec 23@ORL104–10837-848-3322-27188100.0102.9104.5
Dec 21@CHI123–9848-10015-4512-141217120.696.1102.0
Dec 19CHI108–11738-9714-5618-21411110.2119.498.0
Dec 15@WAS112–9840-9318-4614-241815109.894.2103.0
Dec 12DET123–9946-9020-4811-13148123.098.0100.5
Dec 7MEM121–12742-10518-6019-281315111.0117.6108.5
Dec 6MIL111–10540-8717-5314-1667118.1110.594.5
Dec 4DET130–12045-9421-5319-251614128.7117.6101.5
Dec 2MIA108–8939-8919-5511-131414112.591.896.5
Dec 1@CLE111–11538-9517-4918-1989106.7112.7103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games
21%
pregame chance the forecast gave PHI, the winner
the forecast favored BOS
16 pts
margin miss
forecast +12, actual −4 for BOS
16th
most surprising result of 2024-25
of 1,309 graded games
293rd
largest margin miss of 2024-25
outcome surprise 1.56 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team statPHIBOS
Final score118114
Field goals41–88 · 46.6%43–95 · 45.3%
Three-pointers17–40 · 42.5%20–49 · 40.8%
Free throws19–19 · 100.0%8–13 · 61.5%
Rebounds3951
Assists2824
Turnovers613
Steals103
Blocks54

How the model does with these teams over time: Philadelphia 76ers · Boston Celtics

Where the forecast differed from the result

MeasureForecastActualActual − forecast
Home margin (BOS)+12−4−16
Total points224232+8
PHI points106118+12
BOS points118114−4

Score by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
PHI30361636–118
BOS25332432–114

Recent form before this game

Philadelphia 76ers

DateOpponentResult
Dec 23 vs SAS W 111–106
Dec 21 at CLE L 99–126
Dec 20 vs CHA W 108–98
Dec 16 at CHA W 121–108
Dec 13 vs IND L 107–121

Boston Celtics

DateOpponentResult
Dec 23 at ORL L 104–108
Dec 21 at CHI W 123–98
Dec 19 vs CHI L 108–117
Dec 15 at WAS W 112–98
Dec 12 vs DET W 123–99

Previous meetings

DateMatchupScore
Feb 27 2023-24 PHI at BOS PHI 99 – 117 BOS
Dec 1 2023-24 PHI at BOS PHI 119 – 125 BOS
Nov 15 2023-24 BOS at PHI BOS 117 – 107 PHI
Nov 8 2023-24 BOS at PHI BOS 103 – 106 PHI
May 14 2022-23 PHI at BOS PHI 88 – 112 BOS