2024-25 · Regular Season · Final

Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers

Saturday, November 2, 2024 · tip-off time not recorded

MEM 0–0@PHI 0–1 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
MEM Memphis Grizzlies	106	124	+18
PHI Philadelphia 76ers (home)	115	107	−8

Forecast: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 73% win probability, projected margin 9.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	MEM	PHI
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1387	1483
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+167
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−4.8	+0.8
Games played this season	6	4
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	109.6	112.8
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	114.0	115.7
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	98.2
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	29.4	0.0
Rest days	2	3
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingMEM1387PHI1483

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

MEM1387

Ended last season at 1319 → started this one at 1364
This season's 6 games: +22.5

W@UTA126–124+6.8
L@HOU108–128−6.9
WORL124–111+17.8
LCHI123–126−5.0
LBKN106–119−12.9
WMIL122–99+22.7

PHI1483

Ended last season at 1532 → started this one at 1524
This season's 4 games: −40.8

LMIL109–124−17.5
L@TOR107–115−12.7
W@IND118–114+9.9
LDET95–105−20.5

Season scoring marginMEM−4.8PHI+0.8

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

MEM−4.8

Scores 118.2, allows 117.8 over 6 games: +0.3 a game.

30% this season (+0.3) + 70% last season (−7.0) = −4.8

PHI+0.8

Scores 107.2, allows 114.5 over 4 games: −7.3 a game.

20% this season (−7.3) + 80% last season (+2.8) = +0.8

Offensive rating, last 10MEM109.6PHI112.8

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

MEM109.6scored, −4.8 vs league

Factor	MEM	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	51.5%	54.7%	−4.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.1%	11.5%	−0.8
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.0%	24.1%	+1.3
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.200	0.194	+0.2
Everything else			−0.6

PHI112.8scored, −1.7 vs league

Factor	PHI	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	50.1%	54.7%	−6.9
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.8%	11.5%	+1.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	26.5%	24.1%	+1.1
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.273	0.194	+2.3
Everything else			+0.8

Defensive rating, last 10MEM114.0PHI115.7

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2023-24: 114.5).

MEM114.0allowed, −0.5 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	55.0%	54.7%	−0.5
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.0%	11.5%	+2.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	27.7%	24.1%	−1.6
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.227	0.194	−0.9
Everything else			+1.5

PHI115.7allowed, +1.3 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	52.8%	54.7%	+2.8
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.2%	11.5%	+0.9
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	30.6%	24.1%	−2.9
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.246	0.194	−1.5
Everything else			−0.6

Pace, last 10average 98.2

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

MEM 102.5 and PHI 93.9 → average 98.2 (league 2023-24: 98.8)

Rotation points missingMEM29.4PHI0.0

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

MEM29.4pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Desmond Bane	18.8	26.5	5
Marcus Smart	5.6	19.8	5
John Konchar	5.0	18.8	3

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-02 17:30 ET. 11 rotation players.

PHI0.0pts/g missing

Every rotation player was available.

Source: official injury report, 2024-11-02 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestMEM2 daysPHI3 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

MEM2days

Last played Oct 31 against MIL.

PHI3days

Last played Oct 30 against DET.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

MEM

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 31	MIL	122–99	43-82	8-28	28-31	16	7	116.2	96.1	104.0
Oct 30	BKN	106–119	38-81	8-27	22-29	22	12	107.1	120.2	99.0
Oct 28	CHI	123–126	51-111	14-43	7-13	10	18	118.3	120.0	104.5
Oct 26	ORL	124–111	46-86	13-34	19-24	18	6	118.1	106.7	104.5
Oct 25	@HOU	108–128	38-91	10-28	22-36	17	14	100.0	117.4	108.5
Oct 23	@UTA	126–124	43-91	17-45	23-32	12	13	120.0	119.2	104.5
Apr 14	DEN	111–126	45-100	8-33	13-18	13	16	107.8	122.3	103.0
Apr 12	LAL	120–123	43-95	17-39	17-21	13	16	118.8	119.4	102.0
Apr 10	@CLE	98–110	33-84	14-32	18-19	13	10	101.0	113.4	97.0
Apr 9	SAS	87–102	36-104	6-30	9-11	7	17	88.8	105.2	97.5

PHI

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Oct 30	DET	95–105	33-79	8-28	21-28	9	8	103.3	114.1	92.0
Oct 27	@IND	118–114	42-98	11-42	23-31	19	20	108.3	105.6	98.3
Oct 25	@TOR	107–115	29-76	9-29	40-53	16	10	104.9	113.9	101.5
Oct 23	MIL	109–124	41-98	8-31	19-27	10	17	109.0	121.6	101.0
May 2	NYK	115–118	38-87	17-40	22-23	11	16	126.4	129.7	91.0
Apr 30	@NYK	112–106	42-91	15-39	13-19	16	12	110.9	103.9	91.9
Apr 28	NYK	92–97	29-82	9-33	25-29	8	9	101.1	106.6	91.0
Apr 25	NYK	125–114	41-75	15-31	28-33	10	8	137.4	123.9	91.5
Apr 22	@NYK	101–104	36-84	13-36	16-22	10	10	109.8	113.0	92.0
Apr 20	@NYK	104–111	36-81	12-35	20-22	11	9	116.9	124.7	89.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2024-25 surprise games

27%

pregame chance the forecast gave MEM, the winner

the forecast favored PHI

26 pts

margin miss

forecast +9, actual −17 for PHI

44th

most surprising result of 2024-25

of 1,309 graded games

83rd

largest margin miss of 2024-25

outcome surprise 1.32 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	MEM	PHI
Final score	124	107
Field goals	48–87 · 55.2%	36–89 · 40.4%
Three-pointers	12–27 · 44.4%	19–46 · 41.3%
Free throws	16–21 · 76.2%	16–20 · 80.0%
Rebounds	52	33
Assists	35	22
Turnovers	16	14
Steals	9	11
Blocks	6	5

How the model does with these teams over time: Memphis Grizzlies · Philadelphia 76ers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (PHI)	+9	−17	−26
Total points	221	231	+10
MEM points	106	124	+18
PHI points	115	107	−8

Score by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
MEM	24	35	33	32	–	124
PHI	28	24	23	32	–	107

Recent form before this game