2025-26 · Regular Season · Final

Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers

Sunday, December 14, 2025 · tip-off 3:00 PM ET

WAS 2–1@IND 0–0 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗

Each team's share of the floor is its pregame win probability. The line starts at midcourt and moves to the split.

Team	Projected	Final	Difference
WAS Washington Wizards	109	108	−1
IND Indiana Pacers (home)	122	89	−33

Forecast: Indiana Pacers to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 13.

Inside the Forecast

How the inputs are built

What the model received

Input	WAS	IND
Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average.	1234	1447
Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court	+283
Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year.	−15.3	−7.7
Games played this season	23	25
Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions.	110.7	112.4
Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better.	124.6	111.4
Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams.	101.1
Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful.	54.0	5.6
Rest days	2	2
Second night of a back-to-back	No	No

This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked

Built from the box scores

How the breakdowns work

Where each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.

Elo ratingWAS1234IND1447

Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.

WAS1234

Ended last season at 1234 → started this one at 1301
First 13 games: −71.9
Last 10 games: +4.7

L@MIN109–120−1.0
L@TOR110–140−3.5
L@CHI120–121−0.8
WATL132–113+31.6
L@IND86–119−7.4
WMIL129–126+8.8
L@PHI102–121−6.5
LBOS101–146−8.5
LATL116–131−6.2
LCLE126–130−1.8

IND1447

Ended last season at 1673 → started this one at 1630
First 15 games: −180.4
Last 10 games: −2.3

L@CLE109–120−3.9
LDET117–122−5.0
L@TOR95–97−2.2
WWAS119–86+7.4
WCHI103–101+4.1
LCLE119–135−10.6
LDEN120–135−8.1
W@CHI120–105+17.8
WSAC116–105+7.4
L@PHI105–115−9.2

Season scoring marginWAS−15.3IND−7.7

Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.

WAS−15.3

Scores 113.0, allows 128.3 over 23 games: −15.3 a game.

IND−7.7

Scores 111.0, allows 118.7 over 25 games: −7.7 a game.

Offensive rating, last 10WAS110.7IND112.4

Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).

WAS110.7scored, −4.3 vs league

Factor	WAS	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.6%	54.6%	−0.1
Turnovers (TOV%)	13.9%	12.4%	−2.1
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.198	0.222	−0.7
Everything else			−1.4

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 5 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

IND112.4scored, −2.5 vs league

Factor	IND	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	54.5%	54.6%	−0.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	11.5%	12.4%	+1.3
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.218	0.222	−0.1
Everything else			−3.5

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Defensive rating, last 10WAS124.6IND111.4

Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2025-26 to date: 115.0).

WAS124.6allowed, +9.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	57.3%	54.6%	−4.0
Turnovers (TOV%)	10.0%	12.4%	−3.4
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.203	0.222	+0.6
Everything else			−2.7

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 5 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

IND111.4allowed, −3.6 vs league

Factor	Opponents	League	Pts
Shooting (eFG%)	53.1%	54.6%	+2.3
Turnovers (TOV%)	12.4%	12.4%	+0.0
Offensive rebounding (OREB%)	n/a	26.2%	–
Free throws (FTM per FGA)	0.245	0.222	−0.7
Everything else			+2.0

Offensive rebounds weren't recorded for 6 of these 10 games, so rebounding isn't split out; its effect is inside "Everything else".

Pace, last 10average 101.1

Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.

WAS 102.0 and IND 100.3 → average 101.1 (league 2025-26 to date: 100.9)

Rotation points missingWAS54.0IND5.6

Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.

WAS54.0pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Alex Sarr	22.3	32.8	3
Corey Kispert	12.0	22.7	4
Khris Middleton	11.3	27.5	6
Bilal Coulibaly	8.3	29.0	7

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-14 17:30 ET. 13 rotation players.

IND5.6pts/g missing

Player	Pts	Min	Games
Ben Sheppard	5.6	23.3	7

Source: official injury report, 2025-12-14 17:30 ET. 8 rotation players.

RestWAS2 daysIND2 days

Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.

WAS2days

Last played Dec 12 against CLE.

IND2days

Last played Dec 12 against PHI.

The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals

WAS

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 12	CLE	126–130	42-86	16-44	26-32	16	–	120.0	125.0	104.5
Dec 6	ATL	116–131	41-80	17-38	17-19	20	–	114.9	128.4	101.5
Dec 4	BOS	101–146	35-84	10-31	21-25	18	–	102.0	150.5	98.0
Dec 2	@PHI	102–121	35-88	9-36	23-32	15	–	98.1	118.6	103.0
Dec 1	MIL	129–126	53-102	13-36	10-15	10	–	126.5	124.8	101.5
Nov 28	@IND	86–119	33-84	7-32	13-20	17	11	85.1	119.0	100.5
Nov 25	ATL	132–113	48-84	19-38	17-26	12	6	128.2	109.7	103.0
Nov 22	@CHI	120–121	44-96	16-36	16-20	15	15	114.3	114.2	105.5
Nov 21	@TOR	110–140	39-86	12-41	20-24	17	7	105.8	133.3	104.5
Nov 19	@MIN	109–120	43-88	14-32	9-12	17	12	112.4	122.4	97.5

IND

Date	Opp	Score	FG	3P	FT	TOV	OREB	Off	Def	Pace
Dec 12	@PHI	105–115	38-96	13-38	16-19	7	–	106.1	117.3	98.5
Dec 8	SAC	116–105	38-87	14-35	26-28	13	–	116.0	104.0	100.5
Dec 5	@CHI	120–105	45-84	18-39	12-16	13	–	121.2	104.0	100.0
Dec 3	DEN	120–135	42-81	13-28	23-29	12	–	120.0	135.0	100.0
Dec 1	CLE	119–135	41-85	10-30	27-37	14	–	120.2	136.4	99.0
Nov 29	CHI	103–101	41-89	13-41	8-11	12	–	105.1	101.0	99.0
Nov 28	WAS	119–86	48-92	13-34	10-13	11	10	119.0	85.1	100.5
Nov 26	@TOR	95–97	35-78	11-33	14-23	18	3	94.1	96.0	101.0
Nov 24	DET	117–122	39-82	13-31	26-34	13	5	115.8	119.6	101.5
Nov 21	@CLE	109–120	37-88	11-37	24-26	12	10	106.9	115.4	103.0

Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.

The result against the forecast

2025-26 surprise games

19%

pregame chance the forecast gave WAS, the winner

the forecast favored IND

32 pts

margin miss

forecast +13, actual −19 for IND

13th

most surprising result of 2025-26

of 1,309 graded games

35th

largest margin miss of 2025-26

outcome surprise 1.69 nats

Surprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.

Team box score

What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.

Team stat	WAS	IND
Final score	108	89
Field goals	41–89 · 46.1%	31–84 · 36.9%
Three-pointers	10–28 · 35.7%	10–39 · 25.6%
Free throws	16–26 · 61.5%	17–21 · 81.0%
Rebounds	56	41
Assists	19	20
Turnovers	11	8
Steals	5	2
Blocks	3	7

How the model does with these teams over time: Washington Wizards · Indiana Pacers

Where the forecast differed from the result

Measure	Forecast	Actual	Actual − forecast
Home margin (IND)	+13	−19	−32
Total points	231	197	−34
WAS points	109	108	−1
IND points	122	89	−33

Recent form before this game