2024-25 · Regular Season · Final
Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans
Friday, April 11, 2025 · tip-off time not recorded
MIA 2–3@NOP 2–3 records going into the game NBA.com recap ↗
Forecast and result
| Team | Projected | Final | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA Miami Heat | 119 | 153 | +34 |
| NOP New Orleans Pelicans (home) | 104 | 104 | ±0 |
Forecast: Miami Heat to win, 82% win probability, projected margin 15.
Inside the Forecast
How the inputs are builtWhat the model received
| Input | MIA | NOP |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratingMargin-of-victory Elo; 1500 is average. | 1492 | 1325 |
| Elo gap, home minus road, incl. home court | −97 | |
| Season scoring marginPoints per game, blended with last season early in the year. | −0.3 | −8.9 |
| Games played this season | 79 | 80 |
| Offensive rating, last 10Points scored per 100 possessions. | 120.9 | 107.8 |
| Defensive rating, last 10Points allowed per 100 possessions; lower is better. | 108.0 | 119.2 |
| Combined pace, last 10Possessions per game, both teams. | 97.6 | |
| Rotation points missingPoints per game of rotation players listed Out or Doubtful. | 7.9 | 73.1 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | No | Yes |
This forecast can't be broken down exactly: the model version that made this forecast is not available. Explanations are shown only when the model that made a forecast can be rebuilt and reproduces it. How explanations are checked
Built from the box scores
How the breakdowns workWhere each input came from. Open a row to see the games and box-score stats behind it. A breakdown is shown only when rebuilding it from the stored stats gives exactly the number the model received.
Elo ratingMIA1492NOP1325
Updated after every game from the final score only: wins, losses and margin. Each season starts by keeping 75% of last season's distance from the 1500 average.
MIA1492
- Ended last season at 1543 → started this one at 1532
- First 69 games: −133.2
- Last 10 games: +93.6
- WCHA122–105+6.7
- WGSW112–86+28.0
- WATL122–112+9.0
- W@PHI118–95+15.4
- W@WAS120–94+11.3
- W@BOS124–103+40.6
- LMEM108–110−5.8
- LMIL115–121−8.6
- WPHI117–105+3.3
- L@CHI111–119−6.3
NOP1325
- Ended last season at 1553 → started this one at 1540
- First 70 games: −191.0
- Last 10 games: −23.1
- L@MIN93–134−5.0
- L@DET130–136−2.0
- WPHI112–99+9.7
- LGSW95–111−8.0
- WCHA98–94+3.5
- L@LAC98–114−2.8
- L@LAL108–124−4.3
- LMIL107–111−3.5
- L@BKN114–119−6.2
- L@MIL111–136−4.5
Season scoring marginMIA−0.3NOP−8.9
Points scored minus points allowed per game this season, mixed with last season's margin until 20 games are played.
MIA−0.3
Scores 109.9, allows 110.2 over 79 games: −0.3 a game.
NOP−8.9
Scores 110.0, allows 118.9 over 80 games: −8.9 a game.
Offensive rating, last 10MIA120.9NOP107.8
Points scored per 100 possessions. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.8).
MIA120.9scored, +7.1 vs league
| Factor | MIA | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 58.2% | 54.4% | +5.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.6% | 12.0% | +2.0 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 29.4% | 25.2% | +1.9 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.164 | 0.193 | −0.8 | |
| Everything else | −1.6 |
NOP107.8scored, −6.0 vs league
| Factor | NOP | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.4% | 54.4% | −0.1 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 15.0% | 12.0% | −4.3 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 27.6% | 25.2% | +1.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.169 | 0.193 | −0.7 | |
| Everything else | −2.0 |
Defensive rating, last 10MIA108.0NOP119.2
Points allowed per 100 possessions, built from what opponents did in those games. Bars point right when the defense held opponents below average. Split into the four factors: right of center helps the team, left hurts, in points per 100 possessions compared with the league average (2024-25 to date: 113.8).
MIA108.0allowed, −5.8 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 54.1% | 54.4% | +0.5 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 14.0% | 12.0% | +2.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 22.8% | 25.2% | +1.1 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.151 | 0.193 | +1.2 | |
| Everything else | +0.1 |
NOP119.2allowed, +5.4 vs league
| Factor | Opponents | League | hurtshelps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shooting (eFG%) | 56.2% | 54.4% | −2.6 | |
| Turnovers (TOV%) | 10.1% | 12.0% | −2.8 | |
| Offensive rebounding (OREB%) | 23.4% | 25.2% | +0.8 | |
| Free throws (FTM per FGA) | 0.245 | 0.193 | −1.5 | |
| Everything else | +0.7 |
Pace, last 10average 97.6
Possessions per 48 minutes. The model uses the average of the two teams. Faster games mean more points for both sides, so pace mostly moves the projected total, not the margin.
MIA 96.3 and NOP 99.0 → average 97.6 (league 2024-25 to date: 99.6)
Rotation points missingMIA7.9NOP73.1
Points per game of rotation players (two or more of the last 10 games this season, 15+ minutes) listed Out or Doubtful on the official injury report.
MIA7.9pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pelle Larsson | 7.9 | 21.1 | 9 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-04-11 17:30 ET. 9 rotation players.
NOP73.1pts/g missing
| Player | Pts | Min | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| CJ McCollum | 27.5 | 32.3 | 2 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 13.0 | 27.1 | 4 |
| Bruce Brown | 11.1 | 27.7 | 8 |
| Yves Missi | 10.9 | 26.1 | 8 |
| Kelly Olynyk | 10.6 | 24.5 | 8 |
Source: official injury report, 2025-04-11 17:30 ET. 10 rotation players.
RestMIA2 daysNOP1 days
Days since the team's previous game, capped at 5. One day means the second night of a back-to-back.
MIA2days
Last played Apr 9 against CHI.
NOP1day, back-to-back
Last played Apr 10 against MIL.
The last 10 games behind these numbers, box-score totals
MIA
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9 | @CHI | 111–119 | 44-92 | 12-33 | 11-17 | 13 | 11 | 107.8 | 116.7 | 102.5 |
| Apr 7 | PHI | 117–105 | 45-89 | 16-36 | 11-15 | 13 | 10 | 120.6 | 108.2 | 97.0 |
| Apr 5 | MIL | 115–121 | 43-102 | 15-46 | 14-16 | 10 | 11 | 108.5 | 114.2 | 96.0 |
| Apr 3 | MEM | 108–110 | 39-95 | 14-33 | 16-19 | 11 | 15 | 109.1 | 112.2 | 98.5 |
| Apr 2 | @BOS | 124–103 | 43-83 | 14-30 | 24-27 | 4 | 11 | 144.2 | 119.8 | 86.0 |
| Mar 31 | @WAS | 120–94 | 47-93 | 9-32 | 17-24 | 17 | 15 | 113.2 | 88.7 | 106.0 |
| Mar 29 | @PHI | 118–95 | 44-93 | 20-43 | 10-13 | 9 | 15 | 126.9 | 102.2 | 93.0 |
| Mar 27 | ATL | 122–112 | 44-82 | 18-33 | 16-20 | 13 | 7 | 125.8 | 114.3 | 97.5 |
| Mar 25 | GSW | 112–86 | 43-77 | 17-25 | 9-12 | 15 | 8 | 124.4 | 94.5 | 90.5 |
| Mar 23 | CHA | 122–105 | 47-82 | 12-29 | 16-20 | 10 | 7 | 128.4 | 109.4 | 95.5 |
NOP
| Date | Opp | Score | FG | 3P | FT | TOV | OREB | Off | Def | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10 | @MIL | 111–136 | 41-96 | 15-47 | 14-19 | 16 | 9 | 103.7 | 127.1 | 107.0 |
| Apr 8 | @BKN | 114–119 | 39-82 | 12-33 | 24-31 | 17 | 8 | 110.7 | 116.7 | 102.5 |
| Apr 6 | MIL | 107–111 | 43-95 | 12-33 | 9-14 | 11 | 7 | 107.0 | 111.0 | 100.0 |
| Apr 4 | @LAL | 108–124 | 40-82 | 14-34 | 14-22 | 16 | 14 | 113.7 | 130.5 | 95.0 |
| Apr 2 | @LAC | 98–114 | 43-85 | 4-22 | 8-11 | 15 | 6 | 101.0 | 118.8 | 96.5 |
| Mar 30 | CHA | 98–94 | 38-92 | 9-31 | 13-17 | 17 | 11 | 95.1 | 91.3 | 103.0 |
| Mar 28 | GSW | 95–111 | 33-81 | 7-23 | 22-28 | 15 | 12 | 100.0 | 116.8 | 95.0 |
| Mar 24 | PHI | 112–99 | 43-87 | 15-35 | 11-13 | 16 | 12 | 117.9 | 105.3 | 94.5 |
| Mar 23 | @DET | 130–136 | 49-85 | 20-40 | 12-16 | 17 | 10 | 134.0 | 138.8 | 97.5 |
| Mar 21 | @MIN | 93–134 | 34-68 | 11-31 | 14-22 | 25 | 7 | 94.9 | 135.4 | 98.5 |
Off and Def are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions in each game; their averages are the 10-game ratings above. OREB is missing (–) where the source data didn't record it.
The result against the forecast
2024-25 surprise gamesSurprise is measured against this model's forecast, not against what other observers expected. Outcome surprise is −ln(winner's pregame probability): 0.69 for a coin flip, 2.3 for a 10% winner.
Team box score
What happened in the game. These numbers are not used by the forecast, and they are not offered as the reason it missed.
| Team stat | MIA | NOP |
|---|---|---|
| Final score | 153 | 104 |
| Field goals | 58–104 · 55.8% | 38–95 · 40.0% |
| Three-pointers | 20–45 · 44.4% | 14–37 · 37.8% |
| Free throws | 17–22 · 77.3% | 14–20 · 70.0% |
| Rebounds | 60 | 42 |
| Assists | 36 | 27 |
| Turnovers | 9 | 13 |
| Steals | 12 | 6 |
| Blocks | 5 | 2 |
How the model does with these teams over time: Miami Heat · New Orleans Pelicans
Where the forecast differed from the result
| Measure | Forecast | Actual | Actual − forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home margin (NOP) | −15 | −49 | −34 |
| Total points | 223 | 257 | +34 |
| MIA points | 119 | 153 | +34 |
| NOP points | 104 | 104 | ±0 |
Recent form before this game
Previous meetings
| Date | Matchup | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1 2024-25 | NOP at MIA | NOP 108 – 119 MIA |
| Mar 22 2023-24 | NOP at MIA | NOP 111 – 88 MIA |
| Feb 23 2023-24 | MIA at NOP | MIA 106 – 95 NOP |
| Jan 22 2022-23 | NOP at MIA | NOP 96 – 100 MIA |
| Jan 18 2022-23 | MIA at NOP | MIA 124 – 98 NOP |